📉BTC down 7.3%, gold down 7.5%, commodities up 52.5%. Here's what the data shows and doesn't.
Bitcoin and gold are supposed to be the assets people hold when things get shaky. This year, they're at the very bottom of the table. 🤔
📊 What Happened?
Strategist Charlie Bilello ranks 21 asset classes each year, and with data through October 23, Bitcoin and gold are the two worst performers of 2026, down 7.3% and 7.5%. He says no calendar year in his records has put the pair last together.
📉 The Scoreboard
It isn't a bad year for everything. Commodities gained 52.5% and US large-cap stocks rose 12.3%, and only 57% of the 21 asset classes are positive. Bitcoin and gold are trailing stocks, bonds and even cash.
🔄 A Sharp Reversal
This is the part that stands out to me. Bitcoin led major assets in 2024 with a 121% gain, and gold took the top spot in 2025 with 63.7%. Now both sit at the bottom.
Gold's move has been dramatic. It climbed above $5,400 an ounce in early 2026, then closed at $3,995.81 last Friday, after falling below $4,000 for the first time since July.
⛽ Why Both Are Hurting
The explanation I keep seeing is rates and oil. A possible Fed rate hike in December raises the cost of holding both. Neither Bitcoin nor gold pays interest, so higher rates make them less attractive. That's a plausible link, not proof.
🧱 The Long View
One bad year doesn't erase the history. Since 2011, Bitcoin has returned about 120.6% a year on average, the highest in Bilello's table, against 6.3% for gold. Bitcoin also outperformed those assets in 11 of the last 15 years.
⚠️ What the Data Doesn't Say
This is a snapshot through October 23, and Bitcoin has dropped further since, so its year-to-date loss is now bigger than 7.3%. More than two months remain, so the final rankings can still change. It also can't tell us why both fell together, only that they did.
👀 Three Things to Watch Next
The December Fed decision and any hike signals.
Oil prices, which keep feeding the rate debate.
Whether Bitcoin or gold turns first, and whether they keep moving together.
💡 The Bottom Line
Bitcoin and gold are both red in 2026 while commodities and stocks are up. That's unusual, and it challenges the "safe haven" story for both.
The real question isn't which one is worse this year. It's what both are waiting for.
That's the part worth watching.
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
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