The Fed just kept rates where they are. But the vote was not unanimous, and both dissenters wanted to go higher, not lower.
What happened (Fed statement, Wed Oct 28, 2 PM ET):
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%.
Vote: 10-2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred a 25 bp hike.
The statement says economic activity is "expanding at a strong pace", up from "solid" in September, and that inflation "remains elevated".
Key line: "the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate".
Context from the coverage: the Fed hiked 12-0 in September, its first hike since 2023. CME FedWatch had a hold at roughly 90% before the release, so the decision itself was no surprise.
Why it matters for crypto:
The surprise, if any, is the hawkish tilt. Two votes for a hike keep a December move on the table. Pre-decision pricing put December hike odds above 70%, per Decrypt.
Higher policy rates keep Treasury yields high, and that competes with non-yielding assets like $BTC for capital.
The data calendar now matters more than the meeting: October jobs on Nov 6, October CPI on Nov 10, then the Dec 8-9 meeting with new projections.
What the tape did (Binance spot, 5-minute bars, numbers only):
$BTC: 80,860 before the release, then an 18:00 UTC bar that swung from 80,722 to 81,186 and closed at 80,959.
At 19:42 UTC: $BTC 81,319 (+0.7% 24h, range 80,397 to 81,823), $ETH 2,363 (+0.6%), $SOL 102.41 (+1.2%).
A quick two-way wick and then drift. That is a snapshot, not proof of cause.
Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference followed at 2:30 PM ET. This post sticks to the written statement.
My take: a hold that two officials voted against is not a dovish hold. For crypto, the next real test is Nov 6 and Nov 10, not today.
Are you positioned for a December hike, or betting the data cools first?
Source: https://tradeassi.com/en/news/027a3672-b6c6-474a-87d8-5c09b177777f
Not financial advice. DYOR.