gm and welcome, everyone.
Previous Days’ Recap
Since the 24/10 poor low was established, lower prices have attracted less new activity, allowing price to push lower.
26/10 Profile
The profile structure was balanced, with the POC area in the middle of the profile. Both the high and low were poor, as neither buyers nor sellers dominated.
27/10 Profile
Short-term buyers showed a glimpse of activity yesterday, dominating most of the day. The move took out the last three days’ poor highs, marking the first time those highs had been repaired since the 21/10 high was established.
However, the high formed one tick below the 4/09 high, making it a weak high despite having the properties of a good excess high. The low also formed one tick above the 26/10 low, making it a weak low.
The POC area remained very prominent and did not migrate with price as price moved higher, making yesterday a low-confidence day despite the buyers’ activity.
Today’s Opening
The market opened above the previous day’s value area and has been moderately one timeframing higher since opening. I’m expecting a rotational day with a high risk/reward.
As at the time of writing, my first TP at the 23/10 POC area has been smashed. However, price got rejected at the 23/10 value area high and is currently trading around the 4/09 high.
Profile Structure
The current profile structure is healthy, with value building above the previous day’s value area. The current high is a good high, while the low is weak because it is one tick below the 6/09 high. However, the POC did not migrate with price as price moved higher, making the overall market confidence low.
Market Generated Information
since the Start of the Week
26/10 poor low.
27/10 weak low.
27/10 wide POC area.
Current Developing Profile
28/10 weak low.
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1
Since the POC did not migrate with price as price moved higher, I expect the market to trade back to the current POC area and continue building value above the 6/09 high.
Scenario 2
If the 6/09 high fails to hold and price finds acceptance inside the previous day’s value area, I expect a move down toward the previous day’s wide POC area. If price finds acceptance around that area, the 26/10 low will be the next viable destination.