FOMC Preview | Three scenarios for gold, BTC and the dollar
The Fed decision is due Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. Current pricing points to roughly a 90% chance of a hold and 10% chance of a 25 bp hike. There’s no SEP at this meeting, so the statement and Chair Warsh’s press conference may matter more than the rate decision itself.
Where markets stand
💸DXY: Around 101.75, consolidating lower after turning back from 103. The short-term bias remains soft.
🥇Gold: Near $3,996, below its 20/50/100/200 EMAs. $4,000 is the immediate level to watch.
🟠BTC: Around $80,380, below its major EMAs and still in a corrective structure.
Three possible outcomes:
1⃣ Hold with a neutral or dovish tone — base case
DXY could slip below 101.60. Gold may hold or reclaim $4,000, opening a move toward $4,063–$4,106. BTC could stabilize above $80,000 and test $81,000–$81,600.
2⃣ Hold with a hawkish tone
DXY may regain 101.80–102.00. Gold could struggle to hold $4,000 and drift toward $3,970–$3,950. BTC may stay capped below $81,000, with $79,000 back in view.
3⃣ Surprise 25 bp hike — low-probability risk
The dollar could jump toward 102.20–102.40. Gold breaking below $3,970 would raise the risk of further losses. A BTC break below $80,000 could open a move toward $79,000–$78,500.
Key levels with : DXY :101.60 / 102.00 - Gold : $4,000 / $3,970 - BTC: $80,000 / $81,000
Cash is a position into Wednesday. Watch the Fed’s tone, not just the headline rate. NFA.
TRADE $BTC / $XAU HERE👇
The Fed decision is due Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. Current pricing points to roughly a 90% chance of a hold and 10% chance of a 25 bp hike. There’s no SEP at this meeting, so the statement and Chair Warsh’s press conference may matter more than the rate decision itself.
Where markets stand
💸DXY: Around 101.75, consolidating lower after turning back from 103. The short-term bias remains soft.
🥇Gold: Near $3,996, below its 20/50/100/200 EMAs. $4,000 is the immediate level to watch.
🟠BTC: Around $80,380, below its major EMAs and still in a corrective structure.
Three possible outcomes:
1⃣ Hold with a neutral or dovish tone — base case
DXY could slip below 101.60. Gold may hold or reclaim $4,000, opening a move toward $4,063–$4,106. BTC could stabilize above $80,000 and test $81,000–$81,600.
2⃣ Hold with a hawkish tone
DXY may regain 101.80–102.00. Gold could struggle to hold $4,000 and drift toward $3,970–$3,950. BTC may stay capped below $81,000, with $79,000 back in view.
3⃣ Surprise 25 bp hike — low-probability risk
The dollar could jump toward 102.20–102.40. Gold breaking below $3,970 would raise the risk of further losses. A BTC break below $80,000 could open a move toward $79,000–$78,500.
Key levels with : DXY :101.60 / 102.00 - Gold : $4,000 / $3,970 - BTC: $80,000 / $81,000
Cash is a position into Wednesday. Watch the Fed’s tone, not just the headline rate. NFA.
TRADE $BTC / $XAU HERE👇
