Short-term holders just went from selling at a profit to selling at breakeven, and that's quieter than it sounds.
CryptoQuant's STH-SOPR sits at 1.00 with BTC near $81.6K, about 6% under its early-October high. The metric tracks whether recent buyers are spending coins above or below what they paid. During the September to October run it peaked near 1.04, which means profit-taking stayed modest. It never reached the 1.05 zone that tends to show up when the crowd gets greedy.
What stands out to me is the other side of the chart. Each major low this year, near $60K in February and March, then again in June and July, came with STH-SOPR dipping to roughly 0.93 to 0.96. Recent buyers capitulated, and price bottomed soon after. Four examples is a small sample, but the pattern is consistent.
The macro backdrop explains the slide back to 1.00. A hotter-than-expected CPI on October 14 raised hike odds ahead of the October 28 Fed meeting, and BTC dipped toward $80K before recovering. Short-term holders didn't capitulate on that dip, since STH-SOPR stayed out of the 0.93 to 0.96 range. That favors a resilient floor, though one dip isn't proof.
The counter-argument is that a reading of exactly 1.0 can also mark hesitation before a drop. If the Fed hikes and price breaks below the October low near $80K, short-term holders would be sitting underwater, and that's what pushed the ratio into the zone that marked prior lows.
I'd watch for either outcome on a sustained basis. A dip below 0.97 would be the capitulation that historically came near bottoms, while a hold above 1.0 through the Fed meeting would show buyers unwilling to sell at a loss.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Meme Alpha#
CryptoQuant's STH-SOPR sits at 1.00 with BTC near $81.6K, about 6% under its early-October high. The metric tracks whether recent buyers are spending coins above or below what they paid. During the September to October run it peaked near 1.04, which means profit-taking stayed modest. It never reached the 1.05 zone that tends to show up when the crowd gets greedy.
What stands out to me is the other side of the chart. Each major low this year, near $60K in February and March, then again in June and July, came with STH-SOPR dipping to roughly 0.93 to 0.96. Recent buyers capitulated, and price bottomed soon after. Four examples is a small sample, but the pattern is consistent.
The macro backdrop explains the slide back to 1.00. A hotter-than-expected CPI on October 14 raised hike odds ahead of the October 28 Fed meeting, and BTC dipped toward $80K before recovering. Short-term holders didn't capitulate on that dip, since STH-SOPR stayed out of the 0.93 to 0.96 range. That favors a resilient floor, though one dip isn't proof.
The counter-argument is that a reading of exactly 1.0 can also mark hesitation before a drop. If the Fed hikes and price breaks below the October low near $80K, short-term holders would be sitting underwater, and that's what pushed the ratio into the zone that marked prior lows.
I'd watch for either outcome on a sustained basis. A dip below 0.97 would be the capitulation that historically came near bottoms, while a hold above 1.0 through the Fed meeting would show buyers unwilling to sell at a loss.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Meme Alpha#