Most people only look at two things:
- Market Cap
- FDV
That’s not tokenomics. That’s just price tags.
Real tokenomics answers these questions:
1. Who owns the supply?
- Team %
- Investors %
- Community/Airdrop %
- Treasury %
If team & investors control 40 to 50%+ with short cliffs, be careful.
2. Unlock schedule (this is where most pain comes)
- When do big unlocks hit?
- Is it linear or cliff?
- How much % unlocks in the next 6-12 months?
A token can look cheap on FDV but get destroyed by continuous unlock pressure.
3. Actual demand for the token
Ask:
- Does the token have real utility or is it just governance theater?
- Is there buy pressure (fees, burns, revenue share)?
- Or is it only sell pressure from emissions + unlocks?
4. Emissions vs Real Yield
High APY from emissions = temporary.
Real yield from protocol revenue = sustainable.
5. Valuation framework pros use:
- Fully Diluted Valuation vs Real Circulating
- Unlock pressure next 6 months
- Revenue (if any) vs FDV
- Insider allocation + vesting
Simple rule:
A low FDV with terrible unlocks + high insider allocation is usually worse than a higher FDV with clean distribution and real demand.
Most retail looks at “undervalued FDV”.
Smart money looks at *who is forced to sell and when*.
Question:
Do you check unlock schedules before entering, or mostly just look at current market cap?
- Market Cap
- FDV
That’s not tokenomics. That’s just price tags.
Real tokenomics answers these questions:
1. Who owns the supply?
- Team %
- Investors %
- Community/Airdrop %
- Treasury %
If team & investors control 40 to 50%+ with short cliffs, be careful.
2. Unlock schedule (this is where most pain comes)
- When do big unlocks hit?
- Is it linear or cliff?
- How much % unlocks in the next 6-12 months?
A token can look cheap on FDV but get destroyed by continuous unlock pressure.
3. Actual demand for the token
Ask:
- Does the token have real utility or is it just governance theater?
- Is there buy pressure (fees, burns, revenue share)?
- Or is it only sell pressure from emissions + unlocks?
4. Emissions vs Real Yield
High APY from emissions = temporary.
Real yield from protocol revenue = sustainable.
5. Valuation framework pros use:
- Fully Diluted Valuation vs Real Circulating
- Unlock pressure next 6 months
- Revenue (if any) vs FDV
- Insider allocation + vesting
Simple rule:
A low FDV with terrible unlocks + high insider allocation is usually worse than a higher FDV with clean distribution and real demand.
Most retail looks at “undervalued FDV”.
Smart money looks at *who is forced to sell and when*.
Question:
Do you check unlock schedules before entering, or mostly just look at current market cap?