Bitcoin (BTC) Price vs. Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price (Jan 2022 – Present)
The relationship between the Bitcoin Price and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis / Realized Price is considered one of the most critical signals in on-chain analysis.
The STH Realized Price represents the average purchase price (cost basis) of Short-Term Holders (investors who have held their BTC for less than 155 days).
Key Market Phases & Trend Analysis
Period Or Timeline//BTC Spot Price vs STH Realized Price//Market Dynamics & STH Behavior
2022 (Bear Market)//Price < STH Realized Price//Extreme Panic & Capitulation: The spot price traded well below the STH cost basis (falling to $15.5k–$16k during the FTX crash). Short-Term Holders were selling at a continuous loss
2023 (Recovery Phase)//Price ≈ STH Realized PriceRebound & Accumulation: Bitcoin price recovered to the $20k–$30k range and crossed above the STH Cost Basis, marking the first sign of a macro trend reversal.
2024 – Early 2025 (Bull Phase)Price > STH Realized PriceStrong Bullish Support: Bitcoin surged past $73k and made new highs above $100k. During pullbacks, the STH Realized Price acted as a strong structural support level.
Mid 2025 – 2026 (Consolidation)Price hovering around STH LevelReclaiming Control: According to recent on-chain data, the STH Realized Price sits around $73,480, while the current BTC spot price trades above $82,000
Key On-Chain Metrics Explained
1. STH-MVRV Ratio:
a) MVRV > 1.0: When the Spot Price is above the STH Cost Basis, short-term holders are in profit, signalling overall market bullishness.
b) MVRV < 1.0: When the Spot Price drops below the STH Cost Basis, short-term traders panic-sell, which often forms a market bottom.
2. STH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio):
- When SOPR remains above 1.0 (as seen in recent months), investors are selling at breakeven or profit, indicating a healthy bull market structure.
$BTC $ETH $SUI
#BitcoinRecoversTo$82K #CelestiaLaunchesEdenToTestAIAgentTrading #ETHDropsBelow2400USDT
Note: Post is for study purpose,DOYR
The relationship between the Bitcoin Price and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis / Realized Price is considered one of the most critical signals in on-chain analysis.
The STH Realized Price represents the average purchase price (cost basis) of Short-Term Holders (investors who have held their BTC for less than 155 days).
Key Market Phases & Trend Analysis
Period Or Timeline//BTC Spot Price vs STH Realized Price//Market Dynamics & STH Behavior
2022 (Bear Market)//Price < STH Realized Price//Extreme Panic & Capitulation: The spot price traded well below the STH cost basis (falling to $15.5k–$16k during the FTX crash). Short-Term Holders were selling at a continuous loss
2023 (Recovery Phase)//Price ≈ STH Realized PriceRebound & Accumulation: Bitcoin price recovered to the $20k–$30k range and crossed above the STH Cost Basis, marking the first sign of a macro trend reversal.
2024 – Early 2025 (Bull Phase)Price > STH Realized PriceStrong Bullish Support: Bitcoin surged past $73k and made new highs above $100k. During pullbacks, the STH Realized Price acted as a strong structural support level.
Mid 2025 – 2026 (Consolidation)Price hovering around STH LevelReclaiming Control: According to recent on-chain data, the STH Realized Price sits around $73,480, while the current BTC spot price trades above $82,000
Key On-Chain Metrics Explained
1. STH-MVRV Ratio:
a) MVRV > 1.0: When the Spot Price is above the STH Cost Basis, short-term holders are in profit, signalling overall market bullishness.
b) MVRV < 1.0: When the Spot Price drops below the STH Cost Basis, short-term traders panic-sell, which often forms a market bottom.
2. STH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio):
- When SOPR remains above 1.0 (as seen in recent months), investors are selling at breakeven or profit, indicating a healthy bull market structure.
$BTC $ETH $SUI
#BitcoinRecoversTo$82K #CelestiaLaunchesEdenToTestAIAgentTrading #ETHDropsBelow2400USDT
Note: Post is for study purpose,DOYR