$BTC : With all due respect, I’m a bit surprised by the logic of those claiming that the bottom is already in and that we’re in a bull market.
So, let me get this straight.
Bitcoin is supposed to trade almost completely sideways throughout 2027–2028, spending two years in an extremely flat structure, before starting to move up in 2029 and eventually reaching a new ATH around $160K–$170K?
And that’s it?
Let’s look at the larger structure.
Just look at the distance Bitcoin has historically covered between a true cycle bottom and the next ATH.
During the 2022 cycle, Bitcoin’s relief rally from $34K to $48K covered roughly 45% of the distance toward a new ATH. Yet the market hadn’t reached its true cycle bottom.
After the subsequent decline, that distance expanded dramatically — from roughly 45% to 346%, measured from the true bottom to the next ATH.
From that true bottom, Bitcoin then spent roughly three years recovering, eventually reaching a new ATH and continuing toward its cycle peak.
Now look at the current cycle.
After the latest $58K → $87K relief rally, Bitcoin covered roughly 45% of the distance toward a new ATH.
We’re seeing a remarkably similar situation to 2022.
If the same structural mechanism is developing again, Bitcoin could still decline toward its true cycle bottom over the coming months. From there, the current 45–48% distance could expand toward roughly 250–280%, as illustrated in my chart.
And what happens after that?
The market could spend roughly 2.5 years rebuilding from the true bottom, gradually expanding toward a new ATH and eventually breaking above it.
So, let me get this straight.
Bitcoin is supposed to trade almost completely sideways throughout 2027–2028, spending two years in an extremely flat structure, before starting to move up in 2029 and eventually reaching a new ATH around $160K–$170K?
And that’s it?
Let’s look at the larger structure.
Just look at the distance Bitcoin has historically covered between a true cycle bottom and the next ATH.
During the 2022 cycle, Bitcoin’s relief rally from $34K to $48K covered roughly 45% of the distance toward a new ATH. Yet the market hadn’t reached its true cycle bottom.
After the subsequent decline, that distance expanded dramatically — from roughly 45% to 346%, measured from the true bottom to the next ATH.
From that true bottom, Bitcoin then spent roughly three years recovering, eventually reaching a new ATH and continuing toward its cycle peak.
Now look at the current cycle.
After the latest $58K → $87K relief rally, Bitcoin covered roughly 45% of the distance toward a new ATH.
We’re seeing a remarkably similar situation to 2022.
If the same structural mechanism is developing again, Bitcoin could still decline toward its true cycle bottom over the coming months. From there, the current 45–48% distance could expand toward roughly 250–280%, as illustrated in my chart.
And what happens after that?
The market could spend roughly 2.5 years rebuilding from the true bottom, gradually expanding toward a new ATH and eventually breaking above it.