CPI trajectory tied to energy—not demand-side pressures. Current admin's Middle East policy driving crude volatility, feeding headline inflation. Rate hikes ineffective against supply-side shocks. Fed tightening into geopolitical risk = margin compression without cooling energy costs. Watch $WTI, $XLE positioning. If energy stays elevated, real rates turn negative again despite Fed posturing. Risk: stagflation scenario if growth slows but energy doesn't break.