📊 #CPIWatch | Oil Is Heating Up — Are Treasuries Next?
The inflation trade is getting interesting. Here’s what the real market data is telling me. 👇
🛢️ OIL OUTLOOK — BZUSDT $BZ
Brent crude recently traded near $106.27/barrel, while WTI reached approximately $94.70/barrel, as Middle East tensions and concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised supply risks.
Higher energy prices can feed directly into headline inflation. If supply disruptions continue, oil could remain elevated—but any geopolitical de-escalation could trigger a sharp pullback.
📈 CPI WATCH — THE NUMBERS MATTER
The latest confirmed U.S. CPI data available before September’s release showed:
• August headline CPI: +0.4% MoM
• Headline CPI: +3.4% YoY
• Core CPI: +0.3% MoM
• Core CPI: +2.9% YoY
September CPI is expected to show renewed inflation pressure, but the actual report will determine whether that concern is justified.
🏦 TREASURY STRATEGY — TMFUSDT / $TBT
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently stood near 5.204%, while the 30-year yield was around 5.553%.
My approach:
🔴 Hot CPI + sticky core inflation → yields could rise further, pressuring long-duration Treasury prices. TBT may benefit while TMF faces downside risk.
🟢 Cooler CPI + easing energy prices → yields could retreat, potentially supporting Treasury prices and TMF.
🎯 My trading bias: Cautiously bearish on long-duration Treasuries and cautiously bullish on oil, subject to CPI confirmation and price action.
I’ll prioritize risk management over chasing volatility. No trade is worth ignoring invalidation levels.
The big question: Will September CPI confirm an energy-driven inflation rebound, or will core inflation remain contained?
Drop your outlook below. 👇
#CPIWatch #BZUSDT #TMFUSDT #TBT #RWUSD #Oil
The inflation trade is getting interesting. Here’s what the real market data is telling me. 👇
🛢️ OIL OUTLOOK — BZUSDT $BZ
Brent crude recently traded near $106.27/barrel, while WTI reached approximately $94.70/barrel, as Middle East tensions and concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised supply risks.
Higher energy prices can feed directly into headline inflation. If supply disruptions continue, oil could remain elevated—but any geopolitical de-escalation could trigger a sharp pullback.
📈 CPI WATCH — THE NUMBERS MATTER
The latest confirmed U.S. CPI data available before September’s release showed:
• August headline CPI: +0.4% MoM
• Headline CPI: +3.4% YoY
• Core CPI: +0.3% MoM
• Core CPI: +2.9% YoY
September CPI is expected to show renewed inflation pressure, but the actual report will determine whether that concern is justified.
🏦 TREASURY STRATEGY — TMFUSDT / $TBT
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently stood near 5.204%, while the 30-year yield was around 5.553%.
My approach:
🔴 Hot CPI + sticky core inflation → yields could rise further, pressuring long-duration Treasury prices. TBT may benefit while TMF faces downside risk.
🟢 Cooler CPI + easing energy prices → yields could retreat, potentially supporting Treasury prices and TMF.
🎯 My trading bias: Cautiously bearish on long-duration Treasuries and cautiously bullish on oil, subject to CPI confirmation and price action.
I’ll prioritize risk management over chasing volatility. No trade is worth ignoring invalidation levels.
The big question: Will September CPI confirm an energy-driven inflation rebound, or will core inflation remain contained?
Drop your outlook below. 👇
#CPIWatch #BZUSDT #TMFUSDT #TBT #RWUSD #Oil