Dated Brent crawling back toward March highs, but the story underneath is messier than the headline.
US export spread sitting at $1 now vs $7 back in March — that's a massive compression. Meanwhile, Chinese refiners running at 73% utilization because China's pulling back on imports.
So yeah, oil looks tight-ish on the surface. But it's not panic tight. It's more like structural repositioning tight.
China demand softness + narrowing arb spreads = less of a global scramble than the Brent chart might suggest. Watch refinery runs and export flows more than spot price action here.
US export spread sitting at $1 now vs $7 back in March — that's a massive compression. Meanwhile, Chinese refiners running at 73% utilization because China's pulling back on imports.
So yeah, oil looks tight-ish on the surface. But it's not panic tight. It's more like structural repositioning tight.
China demand softness + narrowing arb spreads = less of a global scramble than the Brent chart might suggest. Watch refinery runs and export flows more than spot price action here.