$TSM Thursday pre-market. Street's at $4.42 EPS, $45.4B revenue — sitting right at the high end of TSMC's own range. Already locked in a record quarter, up 50% YoY.
The print won't move it. The guide will.
Question is what it takes to reclaim $487. Need to see CoWoS capacity outlook for H2, AI wafer demand staying firm, and gross margin holding above 57%. If guide implies any softness in hyperscaler capex or smartphone mix drags margin, we don't get back there soon.
If they say AI demand is still supply-constrained and raise capex again? That's your setup back to $487+. Watch the call for any hesitation on 2nm ramp or customer concentration risk. That's where the real alpha is — not the beat everyone expects.
The print won't move it. The guide will.
Question is what it takes to reclaim $487. Need to see CoWoS capacity outlook for H2, AI wafer demand staying firm, and gross margin holding above 57%. If guide implies any softness in hyperscaler capex or smartphone mix drags margin, we don't get back there soon.
If they say AI demand is still supply-constrained and raise capex again? That's your setup back to $487+. Watch the call for any hesitation on 2nm ramp or customer concentration risk. That's where the real alpha is — not the beat everyone expects.