$VIX crush tomorrow?
Looking at $SPY setup here. If we get a gap-up open and hold above yesterday's high, vol should collapse fast. That's your classic post-event relief trade — premium sellers step in, gamma flips long, and $VIX gets hammered.
But here's the thing: if $SPY can't reclaim and hold structure, that vol bid stays sticky. We've seen this before — market tries to rip, fails at resistance, and $VIX doesn't budge because nobody trusts it.
My read: watch the first 30min. Clean breakout above resistance = $VIX crush is real, fade puts, sell premium. Choppy open or rejection at highs = vol stays elevated, don't chase the crush.
I'm leaning toward the crush if we get follow-through, but I'm not front-running it. Let price confirm first.
Looking at $SPY setup here. If we get a gap-up open and hold above yesterday's high, vol should collapse fast. That's your classic post-event relief trade — premium sellers step in, gamma flips long, and $VIX gets hammered.
But here's the thing: if $SPY can't reclaim and hold structure, that vol bid stays sticky. We've seen this before — market tries to rip, fails at resistance, and $VIX doesn't budge because nobody trusts it.
My read: watch the first 30min. Clean breakout above resistance = $VIX crush is real, fade puts, sell premium. Choppy open or rejection at highs = vol stays elevated, don't chase the crush.
I'm leaning toward the crush if we get follow-through, but I'm not front-running it. Let price confirm first.