My Friend Sent Me $RENDER And Said "What Do You Think?"... I Didn't Answer Him Before Checking The Data 🤧
OI went from around 8.35M to 8.0M $RENDER , while L/S is still long-heavy. Funding is around 0.005%, basis is deeply negative, and taker selling was clearly stronger during the dump.
Liquidation liquidity is mainly above: $1.88-$1.92, then the bigger $1.93-$1.98 zone, with another pocket around $2.05-$2.10.
Spot flow is weak everywhere:
1H: -197K
4H: -255K
1D: -194K
1D large wallets: -112.5K
Futures CVD is around -69.2M, spot CVD -4.6M. Orderbook is showing some buying now, but not enough to confirm a reversal.
So guys, the data clearly suggests RENDER isn't strong. Your bigger thinking right now is probably "it will drop more." But what if I tell you not necessarily? 😅
This 12%+ drop wasn't only bad RENDER data. $BTC weakness, bad macro and RENDER's own weakness all hit together.
BTC already dropped around 3%, while yields initially pushed higher. But now 2Y, 10Y and 30Y are cooling, while oil is still around 4% up.
That's why I think RENDER can bounce first if BTC stabilizes or pumps after the US session. With liquidity sitting above, $1.93-$1.98 looks reachable, and if BTC really recovers, even $2.05-$2.10 is possible.
But I'm still leaning SHORT.
Not because I expect another random dump, but because RENDER's own data is already clearly weak. And if oil doesn't cool tomorrow, I don't see much reason for the macro pressure to disappear. Yields can push higher again, and if BTC weakens with it, RENDER can reject the bounce and continue lower.
So I'm not chasing the dump. Let it bounce. If BTC weakens + yields rise again, that's my confirmation to short the bounce.
OI went from around 8.35M to 8.0M $RENDER , while L/S is still long-heavy. Funding is around 0.005%, basis is deeply negative, and taker selling was clearly stronger during the dump.
Liquidation liquidity is mainly above: $1.88-$1.92, then the bigger $1.93-$1.98 zone, with another pocket around $2.05-$2.10.
Spot flow is weak everywhere:
1H: -197K
4H: -255K
1D: -194K
1D large wallets: -112.5K
Futures CVD is around -69.2M, spot CVD -4.6M. Orderbook is showing some buying now, but not enough to confirm a reversal.
So guys, the data clearly suggests RENDER isn't strong. Your bigger thinking right now is probably "it will drop more." But what if I tell you not necessarily? 😅
This 12%+ drop wasn't only bad RENDER data. $BTC weakness, bad macro and RENDER's own weakness all hit together.
BTC already dropped around 3%, while yields initially pushed higher. But now 2Y, 10Y and 30Y are cooling, while oil is still around 4% up.
That's why I think RENDER can bounce first if BTC stabilizes or pumps after the US session. With liquidity sitting above, $1.93-$1.98 looks reachable, and if BTC really recovers, even $2.05-$2.10 is possible.
But I'm still leaning SHORT.
Not because I expect another random dump, but because RENDER's own data is already clearly weak. And if oil doesn't cool tomorrow, I don't see much reason for the macro pressure to disappear. Yields can push higher again, and if BTC weakens with it, RENDER can reject the bounce and continue lower.
So I'm not chasing the dump. Let it bounce. If BTC weakens + yields rise again, that's my confirmation to short the bounce.