Three days from now marks one year since the biggest liquidation day in crypto history.
On Oct 11, 2025, the US-China trade conflict triggered $19.16 billion in forced liquidations in a single day. Every over-levered book in crypto got taken out at once.
Today's tape looks nothing like it. BTC sits near $81K after a week that wiped ~$550M of longs and left ~6.4M BTC underwater, the highest count since Sept 18 (Glassnode). Yet 24h liquidations are around $396M (CoinGlass), funding is not stretched, and open interest rebounded from $54.2B to $55.3B within six hours of the dump. The flush hurt. The leverage machine kept standing.
That is the real story of this selloff. Macro did the damage: Brent crude past $102, the 10-year Treasury at 5.3%, and Fed minutes still talking about another hike. Not a leverage cascade.
A year ago the market's leverage hygiene was at its worst on record. Today, with White House Iran strike plans and the Nov 3 midterms ahead, the next shock is probably a matter of when, not if. The question that matters is whether it lands in a crowded leverage book or a clean one. Right now the book is cleaner than it has been in a year.
$BTC $ETH
On Oct 11, 2025, the US-China trade conflict triggered $19.16 billion in forced liquidations in a single day. Every over-levered book in crypto got taken out at once.
Today's tape looks nothing like it. BTC sits near $81K after a week that wiped ~$550M of longs and left ~6.4M BTC underwater, the highest count since Sept 18 (Glassnode). Yet 24h liquidations are around $396M (CoinGlass), funding is not stretched, and open interest rebounded from $54.2B to $55.3B within six hours of the dump. The flush hurt. The leverage machine kept standing.
That is the real story of this selloff. Macro did the damage: Brent crude past $102, the 10-year Treasury at 5.3%, and Fed minutes still talking about another hike. Not a leverage cascade.
A year ago the market's leverage hygiene was at its worst on record. Today, with White House Iran strike plans and the Nov 3 midterms ahead, the next shock is probably a matter of when, not if. The question that matters is whether it lands in a crowded leverage book or a clean one. Right now the book is cleaner than it has been in a year.
$BTC $ETH