Retail investors are all-in right now.
AAII survey shows stock allocation hit 71.8% in September—highest since December 2017 and the 2nd-highest reading since July 2000.
That's also the long-term average going back to 1987. We're at peak historical exposure.
Cash allocation dropped to 13.3%, lowest in nearly 7 years. Bonds at 14.9%, still below average.
In the past 5 months, retail stock exposure jumped 3.3 percentage points—the biggest increase since October 2025.
When everyone's leaning the same way, it's worth paying attention. Historically, extreme positioning like this doesn't last forever.
Not saying the market has to reverse tomorrow, but risk appetite is maxed out. If sentiment shifts, there's not much dry powder left on the sidelines.
AAII survey shows stock allocation hit 71.8% in September—highest since December 2017 and the 2nd-highest reading since July 2000.
That's also the long-term average going back to 1987. We're at peak historical exposure.
Cash allocation dropped to 13.3%, lowest in nearly 7 years. Bonds at 14.9%, still below average.
In the past 5 months, retail stock exposure jumped 3.3 percentage points—the biggest increase since October 2025.
When everyone's leaning the same way, it's worth paying attention. Historically, extreme positioning like this doesn't last forever.
Not saying the market has to reverse tomorrow, but risk appetite is maxed out. If sentiment shifts, there's not much dry powder left on the sidelines.