Trump's latest take is both correct and completely off the mark at the same time. Classic.
He's right about the macro setup — the Fed's been late to every turn, inflation's stickier than they admit, and the dollar's been weaponized to the point where dedollarization is no longer a fringe theory.
But he's wrong about the solution. Tariffs aren't going to fix structural trade imbalances. They'll just shift supply chains, jack up costs for consumers, and probably trigger retaliatory moves from Europe and China. We've seen this movie before.
The real issue? Fiscal dominance. The U.S. is running deficits that would make emerging markets blush, and the bond market's starting to notice. You can't fund infinite spending with rate cuts and hope inflation stays dead.
If Trump pushes tariffs hard, watch the $DXY. If it spikes, risk assets get crushed. If it rolls over because foreign central banks retaliate, then we're in a different kind of mess — stagflation lite with geopolitical chaos layered on top.
Either way, this isn't bullish for anything except volatility and gold.
He's right about the macro setup — the Fed's been late to every turn, inflation's stickier than they admit, and the dollar's been weaponized to the point where dedollarization is no longer a fringe theory.
But he's wrong about the solution. Tariffs aren't going to fix structural trade imbalances. They'll just shift supply chains, jack up costs for consumers, and probably trigger retaliatory moves from Europe and China. We've seen this movie before.
The real issue? Fiscal dominance. The U.S. is running deficits that would make emerging markets blush, and the bond market's starting to notice. You can't fund infinite spending with rate cuts and hope inflation stays dead.
If Trump pushes tariffs hard, watch the $DXY. If it spikes, risk assets get crushed. If it rolls over because foreign central banks retaliate, then we're in a different kind of mess — stagflation lite with geopolitical chaos layered on top.
Either way, this isn't bullish for anything except volatility and gold.
