1 setup broke its red line this week. It's at the top of this recap, not buried at the bottom.
Week of 27 Sep - 04 Oct 2026. Every setup we publish comes with one level that proves it wrong. This is the weekly audit of how those levels did.
THE MISSES
- WLD: closed below 0.5058 on 28 Sep - invalidated (graded A when opened).
A CORRECTION WE OWE YOU
- WLD first closed below its 0.5058 red line on the 28 Sep daily candle (close 0.4915). It was originally logged on 1 Oct at a live price of 0.4838, because WLD had dropped out of the coins checked each session. Outcome unchanged: invalidated. Rule fixed 2 Oct: every open setup is checked every session, on daily closes.
A RULE CHANGE, IN THE OPEN
- One rule set for the whole record. Wrong = the first daily close below the red line. Confirmed = a daily close above the setup's confirmation level (its resistance, or a new high above where price was when we published) before that. Expired = neither in 14 days. Older setups were re-judged under it, with their dates kept; QNT and MOVR became confirmed this way. 4H breakout posts are now observations that point to the coin's red line on the record - they never carry a second one.
WHAT HELD
- QNT: confirmed - a daily close above 172.44 (a new high above its 30-day closing high and its price when we opened it).
- MOVR: confirmed - a daily close above 2.75 (a new high above its 30-day closing high and its price when we opened it).
- WLD: confirmed - a daily close above 0.5884 (resistance).
4H MOVES (reported separately - not part of the record's score)
- NEAR: 4H break above 5.21 held its retest.
- WLD: 4H break above 0.551 held its retest.
- QNT: 4H break above 194.95 held its retest.
- LINK: 4H break above 14.49 held its retest.
- AVAX: 4H break above 11.28 held its retest.
- ENA: 4H break above 0.2611 held its retest.
- BTC: 4H break above 85,650 held its retest.
- ETH: 4H break above 2,722 held its retest.
- WLD: 4H break above 0.5901 held its retest.
- BNB: 4H break above 784.46 held its retest.
- WLD: 4H break above 0.5712 faded back under 0.5569.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Setups opened this week: 14 · confirmed 3 · invalidated 1 · expired 0
- 4H breakouts flagged: 11
- All-time record: 22 logged · 3 confirmed · 1 invalidated · 0 expired · 18 still open
STILL OPEN - AND WHERE EACH ONE IS WRONG
- BABY (grade A): wrong below 0.01281
- HBAR (grade A): wrong below 0.1013
- SUI (grade A): wrong below 0.8447
- SAND (grade B): wrong below 0.0496
- BNB (grade C): wrong below 704.29
- BTC (grade C): wrong below 74,968
- DOGE (grade C): wrong below 0.07831
- ENA (grade C): wrong below 0.1348
- +10 more on the full record
HOW TO READ THIS
We don't call tops or bottoms. Each chart gets a structure stage, a grade after cross-checks (derivatives crowding, news event risk), and one red line. The record keeps every outcome - the misses carry the same weight as the confirmations.
Which miss surprised you most this week - and what would you have watched instead? 👇
Structure research and education only, not investment advice.
Crypto Edge · rkkiran4me@gmail.com
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