CBRS: -nearly 20% week, low since May IPO — Fri close $166.43 — was $350 open May, $386 intraday high, $95B valuation day 1 → $39B now*
- *Trigger: SemiAnalysis X Sep 30 post: OpenAI GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast NOT running on Cerebras wafer-scale, running low batch on Nvidia GPUs — possibly Blackwell GB300. Nvidia account replied eyes emoji, Oct 2 confirmed Astra Ultrafast on Blackwell 8x faster. Previously Aug: Cerebras announced powering GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast 750 tokens/sec. New GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast ∼300 tokens/sec, 6x price — fuels spec on memory limits.*
- *Why it stings: Cerebras biggest customer OpenAI by revenue backlog — Jan deal >$10B, 750MW through 2028 — McKinsey inference to overtake training by 2030 — "alternative to Nvidia" trade takes hit*$SAND $VELVET $龙虾
- *Other pressure: Lockup expiry Wed Oct 1: 19.4M shares unlocked = 8% outstanding (prospectus) — prior 14.6M biweekly from Aug 19 — insiders: CEO Feldman + CTO Lie >$240M Class A sales Aug 20-Sep 25 under 10b5-1 plans set after IPO — COO Mallick 396K shares $80.8M Sep 29*
- *Both Cerebras + OpenAI silent on SemiAnalysis claim as of Oct 2, but Altman response Fri after-hours caused +3% extended — CNBC story*#CerebrasSinksNearly20%OnReportNvidiaToPowerOpenAI
- *Trigger: SemiAnalysis X Sep 30 post: OpenAI GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast NOT running on Cerebras wafer-scale, running low batch on Nvidia GPUs — possibly Blackwell GB300. Nvidia account replied eyes emoji, Oct 2 confirmed Astra Ultrafast on Blackwell 8x faster. Previously Aug: Cerebras announced powering GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast 750 tokens/sec. New GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast ∼300 tokens/sec, 6x price — fuels spec on memory limits.*
- *Why it stings: Cerebras biggest customer OpenAI by revenue backlog — Jan deal >$10B, 750MW through 2028 — McKinsey inference to overtake training by 2030 — "alternative to Nvidia" trade takes hit*$SAND $VELVET $龙虾
- *Other pressure: Lockup expiry Wed Oct 1: 19.4M shares unlocked = 8% outstanding (prospectus) — prior 14.6M biweekly from Aug 19 — insiders: CEO Feldman + CTO Lie >$240M Class A sales Aug 20-Sep 25 under 10b5-1 plans set after IPO — COO Mallick 396K shares $80.8M Sep 29*
- *Both Cerebras + OpenAI silent on SemiAnalysis claim as of Oct 2, but Altman response Fri after-hours caused +3% extended — CNBC story*#CerebrasSinksNearly20%OnReportNvidiaToPowerOpenAI
