🚨 $BTC Pumped Then Dumped... But There's A Serious Reason
What if the macro picture actually improved, but $BTC still couldn't hold the pump?
BTC pushed toward $87K after September NFP came in at just 29K vs ~90K expected, with unemployment at 4.2%. That's bullish for crypto because it reduces pressure for another immediate Fed hike.
Recent Fed comments were also supportive. NY Fed President John Williams said there was no urgency for another hike, while Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers may need more time. October hike odds fell sharply.
August PCE was also moving in the right direction, oil has cooled, and yesterday's SEC move added another positive crypto catalyst.
So why did BTC pump toward $87K and then fall back toward $84K?
The main problem is still bond yields.
Yields initially dropped after NFP, helping BTC pump, but then reversed higher. The 10Y moved back above 5.2%, keeping financial conditions tight.
I already said after NFP that I wouldn't be surprised if BTC dropped today, even with bullish macro data. Profit-taking around $87K + stubbornly high yields was enough to trigger the reversal.
Now the next major test is CPI on October 14. If CPI comes in softer than expected, it could put more pressure on yields and give BTC another catalyst.
So for me, the macro picture improved... but bond yields are still the problem. $SOL
What if the macro picture actually improved, but $BTC still couldn't hold the pump?
BTC pushed toward $87K after September NFP came in at just 29K vs ~90K expected, with unemployment at 4.2%. That's bullish for crypto because it reduces pressure for another immediate Fed hike.
Recent Fed comments were also supportive. NY Fed President John Williams said there was no urgency for another hike, while Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers may need more time. October hike odds fell sharply.
August PCE was also moving in the right direction, oil has cooled, and yesterday's SEC move added another positive crypto catalyst.
So why did BTC pump toward $87K and then fall back toward $84K?
The main problem is still bond yields.
Yields initially dropped after NFP, helping BTC pump, but then reversed higher. The 10Y moved back above 5.2%, keeping financial conditions tight.
I already said after NFP that I wouldn't be surprised if BTC dropped today, even with bullish macro data. Profit-taking around $87K + stubbornly high yields was enough to trigger the reversal.
Now the next major test is CPI on October 14. If CPI comes in softer than expected, it could put more pressure on yields and give BTC another catalyst.
So for me, the macro picture improved... but bond yields are still the problem. $SOL
