*Sep NFP +29K vs +90K est (Reuters) / 84K, well below Aug +133K (revised down from 162K) and 12M avg +45K — July revised to -10K from +21K, Aug -29K, combined -60K — Not statistically $MAGMA $SAND $GTC significant per BLS, likely seasonal distortion: Labor Day late this year hurts seasonal factors*
- *Unemployment 4.2% vs 4.1% est and Aug 4.1%, range 4.1-4.3% since March, 7.1M unemployed — Participation 61.8% vs 61.6% Aug — Wages +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% est, +3.0% y/y vs +3.2% est, $37.81 (+5c), 34.4h workweek*
- *Sectors: Health care +17K (vs avg +33K), construction +11K, manufacturing +9K — Gov -17K, info -10K, professional/business -9K, financial -7K (down 129K since May 2025)*
- *Market: BTC $86.6K +2% after print (Nasdaq futures +1.2%) — 10Y yield -7bp to 5.17%, 2Y to 4.71%, gold +1%, dollar down — Fed: CME FedWatch now 85% hold Oct 27-28 vs 75% before, from ∼15% to now ∼50% chance of another hike Dec? NYPost notes hike less likely — NY Post/Realtor: not weak enough to shift Fed from inflation focus, CPI Oct 14 + PPI more decisive*
Your 68% miss calc is right: 29K vs 90K = 67.7% miss.
*BREAKING 🚨 Sep NFP shocks +29K vs +90K est (-68%) 📉 Aug revised to +133K from +162K, July to -10K from +21K (-60K total) — unemployment up to 4.2% vs 4.1% est, wages +0.1% vs +0.3% est — BTC $86.6K, yields drop 7bp — 85% odds Fed holds Oct 27-28, Dec hike now ∼50% 🔥*
- *Unemployment 4.2% vs 4.1% est and Aug 4.1%, range 4.1-4.3% since March, 7.1M unemployed — Participation 61.8% vs 61.6% Aug — Wages +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% est, +3.0% y/y vs +3.2% est, $37.81 (+5c), 34.4h workweek*
- *Sectors: Health care +17K (vs avg +33K), construction +11K, manufacturing +9K — Gov -17K, info -10K, professional/business -9K, financial -7K (down 129K since May 2025)*
- *Market: BTC $86.6K +2% after print (Nasdaq futures +1.2%) — 10Y yield -7bp to 5.17%, 2Y to 4.71%, gold +1%, dollar down — Fed: CME FedWatch now 85% hold Oct 27-28 vs 75% before, from ∼15% to now ∼50% chance of another hike Dec? NYPost notes hike less likely — NY Post/Realtor: not weak enough to shift Fed from inflation focus, CPI Oct 14 + PPI more decisive*
Your 68% miss calc is right: 29K vs 90K = 67.7% miss.
*BREAKING 🚨 Sep NFP shocks +29K vs +90K est (-68%) 📉 Aug revised to +133K from +162K, July to -10K from +21K (-60K total) — unemployment up to 4.2% vs 4.1% est, wages +0.1% vs +0.3% est — BTC $86.6K, yields drop 7bp — 85% odds Fed holds Oct 27-28, Dec hike now ∼50% 🔥*
