$BTC MAY BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER BIG MOVE.
Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis points to three technical signals suggesting Bitcoin could still be in the early stages of a larger move higher:
BREAKOUTS ARE WORKING AGAIN
Cappelleri says the breakout pattern that helped BTC rally during the summer is showing signs of working again, after several similar setups failed between late 2025 and early 2026.
THE 2022–2023 PATTERN IS BACK
BTC’s weekly chart this year resembles the 2022–2023 period, when weekly averages began turning upward and helped limit downside during pullbacks.
THE LONG-TERM TRENDLINE IS HOLDING
The latest recovery began near Bitcoin’s long-term 2017 uptrend line. Previous pullbacks toward that trendline were followed by rallies within several months.
Trading volume on exchanges also recovered in August, according to CryptoQuant data cited by BeInCrypto.
BUT THERE’S A MACRO PROBLEM:
CME FedWatch showed a 68.1% probability of a Fed rate hike in October as of September 28.
So the setup isn't simply:
“BTC chart bullish → number go up.”
It’s a battle between improving technical structure and a potentially restrictive macro backdrop.
Bitcoin may be preparing for the next leg up.
The Fed may be preparing to ruin the party.
Which one wins?
Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis points to three technical signals suggesting Bitcoin could still be in the early stages of a larger move higher:
BREAKOUTS ARE WORKING AGAIN
Cappelleri says the breakout pattern that helped BTC rally during the summer is showing signs of working again, after several similar setups failed between late 2025 and early 2026.
THE 2022–2023 PATTERN IS BACK
BTC’s weekly chart this year resembles the 2022–2023 period, when weekly averages began turning upward and helped limit downside during pullbacks.
THE LONG-TERM TRENDLINE IS HOLDING
The latest recovery began near Bitcoin’s long-term 2017 uptrend line. Previous pullbacks toward that trendline were followed by rallies within several months.
Trading volume on exchanges also recovered in August, according to CryptoQuant data cited by BeInCrypto.
BUT THERE’S A MACRO PROBLEM:
CME FedWatch showed a 68.1% probability of a Fed rate hike in October as of September 28.
So the setup isn't simply:
“BTC chart bullish → number go up.”
It’s a battle between improving technical structure and a potentially restrictive macro backdrop.
Bitcoin may be preparing for the next leg up.
The Fed may be preparing to ruin the party.
Which one wins?
