Flow flipped before structure did. Seven of ten volume strikes were calls yesterday after six of ten were puts the day before. The cushion went from -$21M to +$119M. $SPX up 15 points.
Clearest signal at 7,700. That strike carried -$46M on Wednesday. Call buying brought it to -$20M. Buyers absorbing protection rather than adding to it.
But nothing below price actually cleared. 7,650 still -$87M. 7,625 at -$77M. 7,600 at -$86M. Price still sits under the regime line at 7,714, 48 points up.
Behavior improved. Infrastructure did not. We made that distinction a week ago and it held.
One thing: the regime line tightened to three levels between 7,714 and 7,720. A move through 7,720 clears the whole band at once and the heavy levels at 7,725 to 7,800 start pulling.
Jobs at 8:30.
Last month's jobs print landed in a $552M cushion and took 38% out of it. Today's lands in $119M.
Range today: 7,625 to 7,725.
Clearest signal at 7,700. That strike carried -$46M on Wednesday. Call buying brought it to -$20M. Buyers absorbing protection rather than adding to it.
But nothing below price actually cleared. 7,650 still -$87M. 7,625 at -$77M. 7,600 at -$86M. Price still sits under the regime line at 7,714, 48 points up.
Behavior improved. Infrastructure did not. We made that distinction a week ago and it held.
One thing: the regime line tightened to three levels between 7,714 and 7,720. A move through 7,720 clears the whole band at once and the heavy levels at 7,725 to 7,800 start pulling.
Jobs at 8:30.
Last month's jobs print landed in a $552M cushion and took 38% out of it. Today's lands in $119M.
Range today: 7,625 to 7,725.
