86% margin on memory. If that doesn’t make you sit up, you’re not paying attention.
Tonight $MU either proves the supercycle is real, or the whole “this time is different” line starts looking like last cycle’s hopium. I’m not sitting in the middle. I’m bullish.
#EarningsSeason
They already printed 84.9% last quarter on $41.5B. Guiding ~86% on $50B and ~$31 EPS isn’t some wild stretch. Street is already there. Pricing isn’t exploding like Q3 anymore — and that’s the point. If they still hit 86% while ASPs only grind higher, that’s pricing power, not a lucky spike.
The tenth of a percent doesn’t matter. Guidance does. Soft Q1 talk after a clean beat and this thing still gets sold. That’s the trap.
How long does the cycle run? Longer than the bears want. Tight through 2027, probably into 2028. HBM is sold out. New fabs are late. Those 16 take-or-pay deals with floors are the thing old memory cycles never had. I’m not buying “peak next quarter.” I’m buying “supply doesn’t catch demand for a while.”
What I’m doing: holding. Not stuffing more in at the close. After the print — if margins hold and they don’t start whispering that 2027 gets easier — I’m adding the dip. If they miss the margin *and* sound cautious on tightness, I’m cutting. No heroics.
My take, plain: they clear 86%. The cycle isn’t done. $MU is still priced like this ends next year. I don’t think it does.
#EarningsSeason $MU
Tonight $MU either proves the supercycle is real, or the whole “this time is different” line starts looking like last cycle’s hopium. I’m not sitting in the middle. I’m bullish.
#EarningsSeason
They already printed 84.9% last quarter on $41.5B. Guiding ~86% on $50B and ~$31 EPS isn’t some wild stretch. Street is already there. Pricing isn’t exploding like Q3 anymore — and that’s the point. If they still hit 86% while ASPs only grind higher, that’s pricing power, not a lucky spike.
The tenth of a percent doesn’t matter. Guidance does. Soft Q1 talk after a clean beat and this thing still gets sold. That’s the trap.
How long does the cycle run? Longer than the bears want. Tight through 2027, probably into 2028. HBM is sold out. New fabs are late. Those 16 take-or-pay deals with floors are the thing old memory cycles never had. I’m not buying “peak next quarter.” I’m buying “supply doesn’t catch demand for a while.”
What I’m doing: holding. Not stuffing more in at the close. After the print — if margins hold and they don’t start whispering that 2027 gets easier — I’m adding the dip. If they miss the margin *and* sound cautious on tightness, I’m cutting. No heroics.
My take, plain: they clear 86%. The cycle isn’t done. $MU is still priced like this ends next year. I don’t think it does.
#EarningsSeason $MU