Everyone who missed the Q4 bottom is now laser-focused on this new fractal scenario and praying for a retest. Understandable—if you sat out the rally from there, you'd want another shot. But the structural differences matter.
In 2023, $BTC hit 25K, formed equal highs, and rejected immediately. No weekly close above, no established higher high—just a deviation and instant reversal. Classic fakeout.
Now? We've printed a weekly higher high. That's a structural shift. We're ranging above flipped prior highs, not just tagging them and failing. Completely different dynamic.
Add to that: the bear drawdown was ~77% last cycle, ~54% this time. If we apply diminishing returns logic, the biggest pullbacks this bull are likely 10-15% max on the way to 126K.
A 10% drop = ~78K. A 15% drop = ~74K. Even if this fractal plays out identically, it won't produce the deep sweep below lows we saw in 2023. The math doesn't line up.
Sure, sidelined traders would love to long the level they missed. But the market rarely hands you exactly what you want on a platter.
OI reset. Price ranging above prior highs. Structure looks healthy. I'm not positioning for a deep retrace—I'm still eyeing the 90Ks. Just wanted to address this since it's everywhere, same as the Q4 bottom calls that never materialized.
Trade the chart in front of you, not the one you wish you had.
In 2023, $BTC hit 25K, formed equal highs, and rejected immediately. No weekly close above, no established higher high—just a deviation and instant reversal. Classic fakeout.
Now? We've printed a weekly higher high. That's a structural shift. We're ranging above flipped prior highs, not just tagging them and failing. Completely different dynamic.
Add to that: the bear drawdown was ~77% last cycle, ~54% this time. If we apply diminishing returns logic, the biggest pullbacks this bull are likely 10-15% max on the way to 126K.
A 10% drop = ~78K. A 15% drop = ~74K. Even if this fractal plays out identically, it won't produce the deep sweep below lows we saw in 2023. The math doesn't line up.
Sure, sidelined traders would love to long the level they missed. But the market rarely hands you exactly what you want on a platter.
OI reset. Price ranging above prior highs. Structure looks healthy. I'm not positioning for a deep retrace—I'm still eyeing the 90Ks. Just wanted to address this since it's everywhere, same as the Q4 bottom calls that never materialized.
Trade the chart in front of you, not the one you wish you had.
