*Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) = halted 2nd straight month — zero RMP Sep 15 - Oct 14 — previous RMP: $40B/mo Dec 2025 "front-loading" for tax season, $25B Apr, $10B May-Jul, zero Aug + zero Sep 15-Oct 14 — decision: reserves ample — bank reserves Sep 9 $3.04T up from $2.85T year-end 2024, above YTD avg $3.01T — SOFR at/below IORB = funding calm*
- *$15.6B still buying = NOT RMP, but mechanical reinvestment of maturing MBS/agency principal into T-bills — 5 ops: $3.891B, $1.946B, $3.892B, $1.946B, $3.891B = $15.57B total Sep 15-Oct 14 — first Sep 17 settled Sep 18 — does NOT expand balance sheet, just replaces — Fed stressed not QE*
- *Your $215B spree number not in Fed docs — total RMP Dec-Oct roughly $40+40+40+25+10+10+10 = ∼$175B estimated, not $215B — no $209B YTD balance sheet swell cited — balance sheet actually shrinking post-QT ending Dec 2025, now flat via reinvestments*
- *Restart? Wall Street split: Wells Fargo/BofA expect hiatus before mid-Oct when Treasury ramps bill issuance — Barclays Samuel Earl $10B Oct + $20B Nov — Citi sees pause rest of year — NY Fed Roberto Perli July: RMP not on preset course, idle not retired, flexible "when appropriate" language added June FOMC implementation note — Sep 16 Fed also hiked 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%*
*BREAKING 🚨 Fed halts Reserve Management T-bill buys 2nd month zero Sep 15-Oct 14 📉 NY Fed Sep 14: no RMP — reserves ample $3.04T SOFR ≤ IORB — $15.6B still buying is MBS reinvestment (5 ops $3.89B/$1.94B...) not new liquidity — RMP was $40B Dec front-load $25B Apr $10B May-Jul — not $215B spree — not QE balance sheet flat — Wall St split restart Oct vs pause rest year — Perli: tool idle not retired ⚡ $QNT $AMP
- *$15.6B still buying = NOT RMP, but mechanical reinvestment of maturing MBS/agency principal into T-bills — 5 ops: $3.891B, $1.946B, $3.892B, $1.946B, $3.891B = $15.57B total Sep 15-Oct 14 — first Sep 17 settled Sep 18 — does NOT expand balance sheet, just replaces — Fed stressed not QE*
- *Your $215B spree number not in Fed docs — total RMP Dec-Oct roughly $40+40+40+25+10+10+10 = ∼$175B estimated, not $215B — no $209B YTD balance sheet swell cited — balance sheet actually shrinking post-QT ending Dec 2025, now flat via reinvestments*
- *Restart? Wall Street split: Wells Fargo/BofA expect hiatus before mid-Oct when Treasury ramps bill issuance — Barclays Samuel Earl $10B Oct + $20B Nov — Citi sees pause rest of year — NY Fed Roberto Perli July: RMP not on preset course, idle not retired, flexible "when appropriate" language added June FOMC implementation note — Sep 16 Fed also hiked 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%*
*BREAKING 🚨 Fed halts Reserve Management T-bill buys 2nd month zero Sep 15-Oct 14 📉 NY Fed Sep 14: no RMP — reserves ample $3.04T SOFR ≤ IORB — $15.6B still buying is MBS reinvestment (5 ops $3.89B/$1.94B...) not new liquidity — RMP was $40B Dec front-load $25B Apr $10B May-Jul — not $215B spree — not QE balance sheet flat — Wall St split restart Oct vs pause rest year — Perli: tool idle not retired ⚡ $QNT $AMP
