#USGovernment
US Durable Goods just came in better than expected
Expectations: -0.3% Actual: 0.0% Previous: +1.1%
At first glance, this looks bullish for risk assets.
Why?
The market was positioned for a contraction in new durable goods orders. Instead, demand held flat, meaning the US economy is showing more resilience than the headline forecast suggested.
The interesting part is underneath the headline:
➡️ Core durable goods ex-transportation: +0.3% ➡️ Non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft: +1.6%
That matters because these measures give a better read on business investment and underlying demand.
For BTC and crypto, the reaction can be positive if this data supports a softer-dollar / risk-on move.
But there is a catch:
Strong economic data can also keep the Fed more cautious on rate cuts. Treasury yields and the dollar therefore remain important confirmation signals. Recent market commentary has highlighted elevated yields and hawkish Fed expectations as a major cross-asset driver.
So I’m watching:
DXY ↓ + yields ↓ + BTC volume ↑ = stronger bullish confirmation
Without that confirmation, I would not chase the first green candle.
Data beat expectations. Now the market has to prove the move.
$BTC
$NEAR
$ETC
US Durable Goods just came in better than expected
Expectations: -0.3% Actual: 0.0% Previous: +1.1%
At first glance, this looks bullish for risk assets.
Why?
The market was positioned for a contraction in new durable goods orders. Instead, demand held flat, meaning the US economy is showing more resilience than the headline forecast suggested.
The interesting part is underneath the headline:
➡️ Core durable goods ex-transportation: +0.3% ➡️ Non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft: +1.6%
That matters because these measures give a better read on business investment and underlying demand.
For BTC and crypto, the reaction can be positive if this data supports a softer-dollar / risk-on move.
But there is a catch:
Strong economic data can also keep the Fed more cautious on rate cuts. Treasury yields and the dollar therefore remain important confirmation signals. Recent market commentary has highlighted elevated yields and hawkish Fed expectations as a major cross-asset driver.
So I’m watching:
DXY ↓ + yields ↓ + BTC volume ↑ = stronger bullish confirmation
Without that confirmation, I would not chase the first green candle.
Data beat expectations. Now the market has to prove the move.
$BTC
$NEAR
$ETC
