🚨 US-Iran Situation Improves + US-China Trade Truce Extended... So Which Side Is Safer For $BTC ? 🔥
I see traders split right now. Some see the weak data and want to SHORT. Others see the pullback as a buying opportunity and think the bulls are back.
Before choosing a side, look at the data.
Derivatives: Futures CVD -$12.6M, Spot CVD -$16.6M, Taker Buy/Sell 0.85. Orderbook delta is also negative. Short-term flow is clearly weak.
Liquidation Map: Major liquidity sits at $84.5K-$85.5K, then $85.8K-$86.2K. Below, $82.5K-$83K is important.
Spot Flow: 1H large flow is +349 BTC, but 1D net flow remains -3,752 BTC. Short-term buying exists, but bigger spot flow is still weak.
Volume Profile + VWAP: BTC remains below the major volume area around $85.3K-$85.9K. Until price accepts above it, I don't see a confirmed reversal.
Now the part making me careful about shorting directly:
The US-China trade truce was extended to January 10, 2027, giving both sides more time for a broader economic deal.
And recent US-Iran diplomatic contacts keep hopes of de-escalation alive, although no major breakthrough has happened.
These headlines can trigger a fast BTC pump and squeeze shorts.
But the broader short-term backdrop is still heavy: oil remains around $102+, Treasury yields are still above 5%, and US PMI came in very strong at 58.4, keeping inflation/rate pressure alive.
So I'm slightly more bearish, but I won't short blindly at $84K.
I'm watching $84.5K-$85.5K, then $85.8K-$86.2K. A liquidity sweep + rejection + weak CVD would make the short setup much cleaner.
My downside targets: $82.5K first, then $81.8K-$82K.
If BTC reclaims $85.5K and holds with improving CVD, spot flow and OI, my bearish thesis is invalidated.
✅ My take: Short-term data weakens, but headlines can change the game fast. I want oil and inflation pressure to cool before becoming more confident on the next major BTC direction. $ASTER
I see traders split right now. Some see the weak data and want to SHORT. Others see the pullback as a buying opportunity and think the bulls are back.
Before choosing a side, look at the data.
Derivatives: Futures CVD -$12.6M, Spot CVD -$16.6M, Taker Buy/Sell 0.85. Orderbook delta is also negative. Short-term flow is clearly weak.
Liquidation Map: Major liquidity sits at $84.5K-$85.5K, then $85.8K-$86.2K. Below, $82.5K-$83K is important.
Spot Flow: 1H large flow is +349 BTC, but 1D net flow remains -3,752 BTC. Short-term buying exists, but bigger spot flow is still weak.
Volume Profile + VWAP: BTC remains below the major volume area around $85.3K-$85.9K. Until price accepts above it, I don't see a confirmed reversal.
Now the part making me careful about shorting directly:
The US-China trade truce was extended to January 10, 2027, giving both sides more time for a broader economic deal.
And recent US-Iran diplomatic contacts keep hopes of de-escalation alive, although no major breakthrough has happened.
These headlines can trigger a fast BTC pump and squeeze shorts.
But the broader short-term backdrop is still heavy: oil remains around $102+, Treasury yields are still above 5%, and US PMI came in very strong at 58.4, keeping inflation/rate pressure alive.
So I'm slightly more bearish, but I won't short blindly at $84K.
I'm watching $84.5K-$85.5K, then $85.8K-$86.2K. A liquidity sweep + rejection + weak CVD would make the short setup much cleaner.
My downside targets: $82.5K first, then $81.8K-$82K.
If BTC reclaims $85.5K and holds with improving CVD, spot flow and OI, my bearish thesis is invalidated.
✅ My take: Short-term data weakens, but headlines can change the game fast. I want oil and inflation pressure to cool before becoming more confident on the next major BTC direction. $ASTER
