#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsRiseTo69.7%
Markets are now pricing a 69.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by another 25 basis points at its October 27-28 meeting, up sharply from just 8.8% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool as reported by BlockBeats and Benzinga. The shift follows Fed Governor Michael Barr's comments at a Chicago housing conference, where he said further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.
Barr pointed to a series of shocks over the past year and a half — including tariffs, the Middle East conflict, and disruptions from Russia's war on Ukraine — as drivers of upward price pressure, alongside surging AI-driven investment demand, per Stocktwits. The trigger was fresh S&P Global data showing US business activity accelerating to its strongest pace since July 2021, per CNBC.
The reaction hit bond markets hard, with the 2-year Treasury yield jumping over 13 basis points to 4.9%, according to CNBC. Looking further out, CME data shows a 54.8% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike by December, per KuCoin, suggesting markets now expect back-to-back tightening moves through year-end.
$ETH
$SOL
$BTC
Markets are now pricing a 69.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by another 25 basis points at its October 27-28 meeting, up sharply from just 8.8% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool as reported by BlockBeats and Benzinga. The shift follows Fed Governor Michael Barr's comments at a Chicago housing conference, where he said further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.
Barr pointed to a series of shocks over the past year and a half — including tariffs, the Middle East conflict, and disruptions from Russia's war on Ukraine — as drivers of upward price pressure, alongside surging AI-driven investment demand, per Stocktwits. The trigger was fresh S&P Global data showing US business activity accelerating to its strongest pace since July 2021, per CNBC.
The reaction hit bond markets hard, with the 2-year Treasury yield jumping over 13 basis points to 4.9%, according to CNBC. Looking further out, CME data shows a 54.8% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike by December, per KuCoin, suggesting markets now expect back-to-back tightening moves through year-end.
$ETH
$SOL
$BTC
