$Bitcoin finally closed above the 50W MA.
After 45 weeks below it.
I’m not ready to call this the end of the bear market though. Honestly, that feels like jumping ahead.
What caught my attention is the history behind this level.
There were 13 weekly reclaims of the 50W MA across completed bear markets. Bitcoin didn’t make a new lower low after 11 of them.
Okay, that sounds pretty bullish.
But wait — there’s a catch.
Two of those reclaims happened before the final low in the 2021–22 bear market. Both failed.
So the real question isn’t “did Bitcoin break resistance?”
It did.
The question is whether this level actually holds now.
For 45 weeks, the 50W MA basically told Bitcoin, “not yet.” If that same level starts acting as support instead, then yeah, I think the market structure deserves a different read.
And the first reclaim after a bear-market low is especially interesting. Historically, that was usually the one that mattered.
Still, 13 examples is not exactly enough data to declare a new cycle with confidence.
I’m watching the weekly closes more than the breakout candle.
Maybe this is the regime shift. Maybe it’s another failed reclaim.
Still trying to figure out what this actually changes.
Follow for more infrastructure-layer analysis.
$BTC
#BitcoinHits$85K
After 45 weeks below it.
I’m not ready to call this the end of the bear market though. Honestly, that feels like jumping ahead.
What caught my attention is the history behind this level.
There were 13 weekly reclaims of the 50W MA across completed bear markets. Bitcoin didn’t make a new lower low after 11 of them.
Okay, that sounds pretty bullish.
But wait — there’s a catch.
Two of those reclaims happened before the final low in the 2021–22 bear market. Both failed.
So the real question isn’t “did Bitcoin break resistance?”
It did.
The question is whether this level actually holds now.
For 45 weeks, the 50W MA basically told Bitcoin, “not yet.” If that same level starts acting as support instead, then yeah, I think the market structure deserves a different read.
And the first reclaim after a bear-market low is especially interesting. Historically, that was usually the one that mattered.
Still, 13 examples is not exactly enough data to declare a new cycle with confidence.
I’m watching the weekly closes more than the breakout candle.
Maybe this is the regime shift. Maybe it’s another failed reclaim.
Still trying to figure out what this actually changes.
Follow for more infrastructure-layer analysis.
$BTC
#BitcoinHits$85K
