Yep — that line is from Jeremy Allaire on Bloomberg yesterday, and JPMorgan is using same precedent.
$GENIUS $ONE $AVA
Allaire's point:
- *"Clarity is not dead"* — Senate failed cloture 49-50 Tue, but GENIUS Act also *failed its first cloture May 8, 2025 (49-48)* before passing 2 months later and becoming law. So one fail ≠ kill
- Procedural trick: Sen. Tillis flipped to "no" at end and filed *motion to reconsider*, which keeps bill on calendar — leadership can call revote before Congress adjourns end of year without new cloture petition
Reality check from today:
- *JPMorgan note:* "not fully dead, but window extremely narrow and only getting narrower" — ∼2.5 weeks Senate time before midterms + lame duck
- *Digital Sovereignty Alliance:* senators on both sides telling him directly they want lame-duck push, but "long shot"
- *Polymarket:* 8% chance to become law 2026, down from 82% Feb
What replaces it for now: Coinbase CEO Armstrong, Ripple CEO Garlinghouse both say *SEC/CFTC rulemaking fills gap* — SEC already proved it today with 5-year tokenized stock exemption. Less durable than statute (can be repealed next admin, vulnerable to courts).
So Allaire's GENIUS parallel is technically correct, but GENIUS had stablecoin momentum + Trump backing. CLARITY stuck on ethics ban (officials issuing tokens), illicit finance, prediction market turf war + state AGs letter Monday opposing it.#USWeeklyJoblessClaimsFallTo196K #MemeLaunchpads82%OfArcDayOneVolume
$GENIUS $ONE $AVA
Allaire's point:
- *"Clarity is not dead"* — Senate failed cloture 49-50 Tue, but GENIUS Act also *failed its first cloture May 8, 2025 (49-48)* before passing 2 months later and becoming law. So one fail ≠ kill
- Procedural trick: Sen. Tillis flipped to "no" at end and filed *motion to reconsider*, which keeps bill on calendar — leadership can call revote before Congress adjourns end of year without new cloture petition
Reality check from today:
- *JPMorgan note:* "not fully dead, but window extremely narrow and only getting narrower" — ∼2.5 weeks Senate time before midterms + lame duck
- *Digital Sovereignty Alliance:* senators on both sides telling him directly they want lame-duck push, but "long shot"
- *Polymarket:* 8% chance to become law 2026, down from 82% Feb
What replaces it for now: Coinbase CEO Armstrong, Ripple CEO Garlinghouse both say *SEC/CFTC rulemaking fills gap* — SEC already proved it today with 5-year tokenized stock exemption. Less durable than statute (can be repealed next admin, vulnerable to courts).
So Allaire's GENIUS parallel is technically correct, but GENIUS had stablecoin momentum + Trump backing. CLARITY stuck on ethics ban (officials issuing tokens), illicit finance, prediction market turf war + state AGs letter Monday opposing it.#USWeeklyJoblessClaimsFallTo196K #MemeLaunchpads82%OfArcDayOneVolume
