Housing starts dropped 2.6% last month when everyone expected a 6.7% jump. Building permits fell 2.7% too.
This matters because permits are the leading indicator—they tell you what builders think about demand six months out. And right now, they're pulling back.
Not a collapse. Just builders reading the room. Mortgage rates still elevated, affordability still stretched, buyers still waiting. Classic late-cycle caution.
The gap between expectation and reality is the story here. Consensus was betting on a rebound. Instead, we got more hesitation.
This matters because permits are the leading indicator—they tell you what builders think about demand six months out. And right now, they're pulling back.
Not a collapse. Just builders reading the room. Mortgage rates still elevated, affordability still stretched, buyers still waiting. Classic late-cycle caution.
The gap between expectation and reality is the story here. Consensus was betting on a rebound. Instead, we got more hesitation.
