【#Bitcoin Market Through the Options Market】
The major U.S. events — PPI, CPI, and the FOMC — are now behind us.
BVIV, which reflects Bitcoin’s implied volatility, has continued to decline after these events and is now around 37%.
With event risk fading, short-term volatility expectations have eased. The key question now is whether $BTC enters another period of consolidation while the market waits for its next catalyst.
Next, looking at dealer hedging levels derived from the options market, the current structure is shown in Image 2.
BTC is currently trading around $76,500.
On the downside, the first important level is the Gamma Flip near $75,600.
The Gamma Flip represents a level where dealers’ gamma exposure and hedging behavior may change depending on the options positioning.
That makes it an important short-term level to watch — whether BTC can hold above it or breaks clearly below.
Around $75,000 is also likely to remain an important downside battleground.
On the upside, the first key level is $78,000.
There is relatively significant hedging exposure around this area, meaning price action could slow down or become more contested as BTC approaches it.
Above that, the next levels are:
$80,000 → $82,000
Interestingly, the major options-derived levels have not changed much since before the major U.S. events.
Downside: around $75,000
Upside: $78,000 → $80,000
These levels remain worth watching.
And tomorrow, attention turns to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting.
The market is increasingly focused on the possibility of another rate hike.
Personally, I think the most important part will not simply be the rate decision itself, but what the BOJ says about future monetary policy.
Any signals regarding the future pace of rate hikes or the eventual terminal rate could affect not only Japanese markets, but also global yields and risk assets.
For now, I’ll be watching how BTC reacts around these key options levels.
For more of my market analysis, check out:
X: @BaByDoll_Ch
YouTube: @BaByDoll.Channel
The major U.S. events — PPI, CPI, and the FOMC — are now behind us.
BVIV, which reflects Bitcoin’s implied volatility, has continued to decline after these events and is now around 37%.
With event risk fading, short-term volatility expectations have eased. The key question now is whether $BTC enters another period of consolidation while the market waits for its next catalyst.
Next, looking at dealer hedging levels derived from the options market, the current structure is shown in Image 2.
BTC is currently trading around $76,500.
On the downside, the first important level is the Gamma Flip near $75,600.
The Gamma Flip represents a level where dealers’ gamma exposure and hedging behavior may change depending on the options positioning.
That makes it an important short-term level to watch — whether BTC can hold above it or breaks clearly below.
Around $75,000 is also likely to remain an important downside battleground.
On the upside, the first key level is $78,000.
There is relatively significant hedging exposure around this area, meaning price action could slow down or become more contested as BTC approaches it.
Above that, the next levels are:
$80,000 → $82,000
Interestingly, the major options-derived levels have not changed much since before the major U.S. events.
Downside: around $75,000
Upside: $78,000 → $80,000
These levels remain worth watching.
And tomorrow, attention turns to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting.
The market is increasingly focused on the possibility of another rate hike.
Personally, I think the most important part will not simply be the rate decision itself, but what the BOJ says about future monetary policy.
Any signals regarding the future pace of rate hikes or the eventual terminal rate could affect not only Japanese markets, but also global yields and risk assets.
For now, I’ll be watching how BTC reacts around these key options levels.
For more of my market analysis, check out:
X: @BaByDoll_Ch
YouTube: @BaByDoll.Channel
