FED RATE HIKE: What I predicted vs what happened
Yesterday I said the hike was decided, the dot plot was the trade. Accountability check:
➡️ 25 bps hike to 3.75%–4.00%
✅ Correct. First Fed rate hike since 2023.
➡️ One more hike in dots = neutral
✅ Correct. Dots show one more by year-end.
➡️ $BTC won't move on the statement
✅ Correct. $75K-$76K before, $75K-$76K after.
➡️ 1–2 dissents
❌ Wrong. 12–0 unanimous. Even Warsh voted yes.
Four out of five.
Warsh: "I'm not in the forward guidance business." Hawkish, not escalating. White House called it "unfortunate."
Bitcoin reaction: muted. BTC holding $75K–$76K, but spot ETF outflows are back.
Key levels:
$74K–$75K holds → $77K–$78K, then $81.6K wall
Breaks → $70K–$65K
Fed rate hike is short-term bearish for Bitcoin and crypto, but with only one more hike expected, the end of tightening is near, and that's usually where the next BTC bull run begins.
Absorbed is not bullish. Range market, trade the edges. No leverage.
Next catalyst: October FOMC, 45% odds of another hike.
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points again in October.
Yesterday I said the hike was decided, the dot plot was the trade. Accountability check:
➡️ 25 bps hike to 3.75%–4.00%
✅ Correct. First Fed rate hike since 2023.
➡️ One more hike in dots = neutral
✅ Correct. Dots show one more by year-end.
➡️ $BTC won't move on the statement
✅ Correct. $75K-$76K before, $75K-$76K after.
➡️ 1–2 dissents
❌ Wrong. 12–0 unanimous. Even Warsh voted yes.
Four out of five.
Warsh: "I'm not in the forward guidance business." Hawkish, not escalating. White House called it "unfortunate."
Bitcoin reaction: muted. BTC holding $75K–$76K, but spot ETF outflows are back.
Key levels:
$74K–$75K holds → $77K–$78K, then $81.6K wall
Breaks → $70K–$65K
Fed rate hike is short-term bearish for Bitcoin and crypto, but with only one more hike expected, the end of tightening is near, and that's usually where the next BTC bull run begins.
Absorbed is not bullish. Range market, trade the edges. No leverage.
Next catalyst: October FOMC, 45% odds of another hike.
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points again in October.
