What I’m Watching Across $BTC , $MU , $AAPL
The market has a lot to digest this week.
August core CPI came in at 0.3% month-over-month, above the 0.2% economists were expecting. That pushed expectations for a 25bp Fed rate hike sharply higher, with markets pricing in roughly a 90% chance before the decision.
So the big question for me isn’t just whether the Fed hikes.
It’s what happens after.
Is this the start of a longer hiking cycle?
Right now, I’m not looking at one 25bp hike as confirmation that we’re entering a long hiking cycle.
The Fed will still have to look at inflation, jobs and the next round of economic data before deciding what comes next. Some economists are already expecting additional hikes later this year, but that is still something the upcoming data will have to confirm.
For me, the reaction in bonds and risk assets after the decision will be more important than the headline rate change itself.
What does this mean for BTC?
BTC could see some short-term pressure if the Fed takes a more hawkish tone.
Higher rates generally make liquidity conditions less friendly for risk assets, and we’ve already seen how sensitive crypto can be to changes in macro expectations.
But there is another factor I’m watching closely: regulation.
The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate on September 15 after getting 49 votes, short of the 60 needed to move forward. Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks also sold off following the vote.
So BTC is dealing with two different stories right now:
Fed → liquidity and rates
CLARITY Act → crypto regulation and market confidence
That makes the reaction around these events even more interesting.
MU and AAPL are on my watchlist
For stocks, I’m mainly watching MU and $AAPL.
MU is interesting because of its exposure to the semiconductor and AI cycle. If the market remains comfortable with risk despite higher rates, I’ll be watching how MU reacts.
AAPL is a different setup. It’s one of the biggest names in tech, so it can give a good read on how investors are treating large-cap tech when rates are moving higher.
I’m not looking to force either trade before the market gives me a clear setup.
My game plan
I’m keeping some risk on, but I’m not going heavy before the Fed decision.
If we get the 25bp hike, I want to see how BTC, MU and AAPL react first.
A rate hike itself isn’t necessarily the trade.
The reaction is the trade I’m watching.
For now, I’m keeping BTC, MU and AAPL on my watchlist and waiting for the market to show its hand.