NEAR is going through an important transformation.
It started as a high-performance Layer 1 focused on scalability, low fees and fast transactions. Today, the bigger story is becoming Chain Abstraction + Cross-Chain Infrastructure + AI Agents.
That sounds powerful, but there is one question investors should not ignore:
Is NEAR becoming more useful, or is NEAR becoming more valuable?
Those two things are not always the same.
▪️ 1. NEAR is moving beyond the traditional Layer 1 race
Competing purely on speed and low transaction fees has become difficult.
Solana, Sui, Aptos and Ethereum Layer 2 networks already offer strong performance.
NEAR’s response is Chain Abstraction.
The idea is simple: users should not have to worry about which blockchain they are using, which bridge they need, where liquidity is located, or which Gas token they need.
They simply specify what they want, while the infrastructure handles the complexity in the background.
This is where NEAR Intents becomes important.
According to the provided analysis, NEAR Intents has processed more than $13 billion in cross-chain settlement volume.
That is impressive.
But volume alone does not tell us how much economic value NEAR itself captures.
▪️ 2. The $13B question is actually about revenue
This is probably the most important part of the thesis.
In the 30 days leading up to September 1, NEAR-related products generated approximately $3.48 million in total fees.
However, after payments to solvers, partners, applications and other participants, the reported net protocol fees were around $757,500.
This creates an important distinction:
High transaction volume ≠ high protocol revenue ≠ high token value.
Cross-chain infrastructure requires liquidity providers, market makers, solvers and applications.
They all need to capture part of the economics.
So the real question for NEAR investors is:
As Intents volume grows, does NEAR’s own share of the economics grow with it?
That is the metric I would watch much more closely than headline transaction volume.
▪️ 3. AI gives NEAR another major growth opportunity
NEAR is also positioning itself around AI agents.
The vision includes autonomous agents that can hold assets, make payments, interact with blockchains and execute transactions.
This makes the combination with Chain Abstraction particularly interesting.
Imagine an AI agent that needs to purchase a service or move capital across multiple chains.
Instead of manually selecting networks, bridges and liquidity pools, the agent could simply express an intent and let the infrastructure handle execution.
That is a potentially large market.
NEAR also has a credible technical background behind its AI narrative. Co-founder Illia Polosukhin was involved in the Transformer research that became foundational to modern AI.
But there is still a major gap:
AI adoption has to become commercial revenue.
Having AI teams, partnerships and products does not automatically mean sustainable cash flow.
And even if the AI ecosystem succeeds, investors still need to ask:
Does that success create direct demand for NEAR tokens?
▪️ 4. Tokenomics are improving
There are some positive developments here.
NEAR’s maximum annual inflation has reportedly been reduced from 5% to approximately 2.5%.
Developer Gas rebates have also been removed, while transaction fee burning has been expanded.
The analysis also points to experimentation with using product revenue for token repurchases, with more than 1 million NEAR tokens reportedly repurchased.
Another positive factor is supply structure.
Approximately 1.305 billion NEAR tokens are already in circulation, meaning future concentrated unlock pressure appears relatively limited compared with newer Layer 1 projects.
But there is an important distinction:
Lower inflation does not automatically mean deflation.
NEAR still needs enough fee generation and other value-capture mechanisms to offset new token issuance over time.
▪️ 5. The ecosystem is active, but leadership is not established
NEAR clearly has activity.
The provided analysis cites approximately 40 million monthly active users and more than 8 million average daily transactions in its 2024 review.
August 2026 developer data cited in the analysis shows around 1,231 developers and 79,400 code commits.
However, these numbers need context.
User metrics can include automated activity, accounts and incentivized interactions, so they should not automatically be interpreted as millions of highly engaged economic users.
Developer activity is also meaningful, but NEAR still trails Ethereum considerably and remains behind Solana in important areas such as liquidity and consumer application momentum.
So I would describe NEAR as:
Technically credible, strategically interesting, but not yet a dominant market leader.
▪️ 6. What I would watch next
For me, these are the key metrics:
□ NEAR Intents net revenue
Is revenue growing alongside settlement volume?
□ Revenue capture ratio
How much of the total fees actually stays with the protocol?
□ Real user retention
Are users returning without heavy incentives?
□ Stablecoin and TVL growth
Is genuine capital entering the ecosystem?
□ AI commercial revenue
Are AI products producing sustainable business activity?
□ Token demand
Do Intents and AI activity actually require NEAR?
□ Burns + buybacks vs issuance
Can value capture eventually offset new token supply?
🔎 Final Takeaway
NEAR’s story is no longer simply:
“We are a fast Layer 1.”
The bigger bet is that NEAR can become infrastructure connecting multiple blockchains, AI agents, payments and automated transactions.
That gives NEAR significant upside optionality.
But the investment thesis still needs proof.
The biggest challenge is not whether NEAR can build impressive technology.
It is whether that technology can create a strong economic flywheel:
More usage → more protocol revenue → more token demand/burns/buybacks → stronger token economics.
Until that loop becomes clearly established, I would view NEAR as a high-beta, high-execution-risk infrastructure bet, rather than an already-proven core asset.
The technology story is interesting.
Now the market needs to see the money story.
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