Bitcoin just flashed a signal that has appeared only four times before.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost says the latest crossover happened when Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis moved above the cost basis of active long-term holders.
The previous signals appeared in 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2023.
What makes this interesting is the context. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.06B in net inflows from Sept. 21–23, including a massive $999M on Sept. 21.
Still, one signal doesn’t guarantee anything. The analyst himself points out there is always a margin for error.
For me, the bigger question is whether this crossover is the start of another sustained cycle or simply another temporary shift in holder behavior.
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$BNB is sitting right around the moving averages on the 1s chart, so I’m not seeing a clean directional move yet. Price is currently around 791.38, after bouncing from the visible 791.31 low.
For me, the key area is 791.36–791.39. Price needs to hold this zone and push back above 791.39 for the setup to become more interesting. The recent visible high around 791.42 is the first resistance I’d watch.
The moving averages are tightly grouped around the current price, which shows how compressed the move is. I’d rather see price hold above the nearby averages and reclaim 791.39 than chase the current candle.
If price loses 791.31, I’d step away from this setup because that would break the recent visible swing low and weaken the bounce.
I’m watching the reaction here rather than forcing an entry. On a 1-second chart, confirmation matters even more because the price action can change extremely quickly.
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But something much more interesting is happening underneath the price.
Bitcoin is leaving exchanges.
Latest data:
₿ 13,800+ BTC net outflow from Binance in one day 🔥 Largest daily Binance outflow since 2023 📉 Binance BTC reserves fell by ~20,000 BTC in 4 days 💰 U.S. spot BTC ETFs → 6 straight positive sessions 🏦 Sept. 24 ETF inflows → ~$190.7M
And Bitcoin’s price?
Still consolidating around $84K.
So here’s the real question:
PRICE FLAT. SUPPLY LEAVING.
WHAT IS HAPPENING UNDER THE SURFACE?
If BTC keeps moving off exchanges,
while ETFs continue absorbing spot supply,
the amount of Bitcoin immediately available for sale could keep shrinking.
That does NOT guarantee higher prices.
But if demand remains strong while liquid supply keeps falling,