Week close, Sept 12:
Friday: SPX +0.9% / DJIA +1.0% / NDX +1.0%. Week: all three lower.
US10Y: 4.783% → 4.974%. +19bps on the week, 5% in sight.
Brent: $104.61, +8% on week. Supply-driven — pipeline closure, Hormuz risk.
The pattern: green Friday inside a red week, with yields and oil both breaking higher = relief bounce on uncertainty removal, not trend change.
Positioning into the 16th: the decision is priced. The path isn't — RBC now at three hikes for the year vs consensus one.
Watch Monday: whether 5% on the 10-year prints and holds. Round numbers aren't magic, but stops live there. #positioning #levels
Friday: SPX +0.9% / DJIA +1.0% / NDX +1.0%. Week: all three lower.
US10Y: 4.783% → 4.974%. +19bps on the week, 5% in sight.
Brent: $104.61, +8% on week. Supply-driven — pipeline closure, Hormuz risk.
The pattern: green Friday inside a red week, with yields and oil both breaking higher = relief bounce on uncertainty removal, not trend change.
Positioning into the 16th: the decision is priced. The path isn't — RBC now at three hikes for the year vs consensus one.
Watch Monday: whether 5% on the 10-year prints and holds. Round numbers aren't magic, but stops live there. #positioning #levels
