The top three trending topics right now are one story, and most people are reading the causality backwards.

#BrentCrudeTops$100
#USTreasuryToBuyBackUpTo$6BLongDatedDebt
#BitcoinSurpasses$79K

Oil at 100 is the input. It feeds inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are what the long end of the curve prices. That is why the 10 year sits near 4.81% on the same day the Treasury runs its largest long-dated buyback yet.

That buyback is 6 billion against a market that turns over hundreds of billions a day, aimed at old and thinly traded issues. Whatever it does for market functioning, it is not a lever big enough to set the level of yields. Tagging it bullish or bearish for crypto is a category error.

And $BTC did not surpass 79K in any meaningful sense. It tagged 79,760 and is back at 78,313 as I write this. A level you print and immediately hand back is not a breakout. It is a liquidity sweep.

Since I keep asking other people to make their calls scoreable, here is mine, with an invalidation and a deadline.

If the buyback is what matters, the 10 year should be meaningfully below 4.75% by Friday's close. If it is still at or above 4.75%, then the buyback was plumbing and oil was the only variable that moved anything this week.

I will post the result either way, including if I am wrong.

Which of the three do you think is actually driving the other two?

$ETH