🚨The outlook for the CLARITY Act is poor, with key Republican senators publicly doubting it can pass, largely due to an$FF unresolved dispute over ethics provisions .
· The Core Sticking Point: A standoff over ethics language involving President Trump and his family has stalled progress, with Republican senators warning the bill will fail if the White House doesn't help bridge the gap .
· The Procedural Hurdle: The September 15 vote is a cloture vote to start debate, needing 60 votes. With only 53 Republicans, Democratic support is essential, but they are holding out for the ethics language .
· A Skeptical Market: Prediction markets reflect the pessimism; Polymarket odds for 2026 passage have plunged from 82% earlier this year to around 15% .
· Lame-Duck Last Chance: Even if it passes the Senate, the House calendar is packed, likely pushing any final action to the post-election "lame-duck" session .
Senator Lummis has starkly warned that if it fails, a similar opportunity might not come again until 2030 .
· The Core Sticking Point: A standoff over ethics language involving President Trump and his family has stalled progress, with Republican senators warning the bill will fail if the White House doesn't help bridge the gap .
· The Procedural Hurdle: The September 15 vote is a cloture vote to start debate, needing 60 votes. With only 53 Republicans, Democratic support is essential, but they are holding out for the ethics language .
· A Skeptical Market: Prediction markets reflect the pessimism; Polymarket odds for 2026 passage have plunged from 82% earlier this year to around 15% .
· Lame-Duck Last Chance: Even if it passes the Senate, the House calendar is packed, likely pushing any final action to the post-election "lame-duck" session .
Senator Lummis has starkly warned that if it fails, a similar opportunity might not come again until 2030 .
