$BTC bounce off support looks shaky — could easily flip into a trap.
Price tapped a key level and bounced, but conviction's not there yet. Shorts are getting liquidated, but open interest keeps climbing. That means fresh positions are piling in even as old shorts get flushed — classic setup for a reversal.
Meanwhile, spot CVD dropped hard. Spot's still aggressively selling into this bounce. Not what you want to see if longs are supposed to take control.
If this bounce fails here, all those new leveraged longs get squeezed fast. Watch for a fake-out above resistance, then a hard flush lower. I'm not chasing this bounce until spot shows up and OI stabilizes.
Invalidation: clean break and hold above the local high with spot CVD flipping positive. Until then, fade strength, don't chase it.
Price tapped a key level and bounced, but conviction's not there yet. Shorts are getting liquidated, but open interest keeps climbing. That means fresh positions are piling in even as old shorts get flushed — classic setup for a reversal.
Meanwhile, spot CVD dropped hard. Spot's still aggressively selling into this bounce. Not what you want to see if longs are supposed to take control.
If this bounce fails here, all those new leveraged longs get squeezed fast. Watch for a fake-out above resistance, then a hard flush lower. I'm not chasing this bounce until spot shows up and OI stabilizes.
Invalidation: clean break and hold above the local high with spot CVD flipping positive. Until then, fade strength, don't chase it.
