🔥 Fed Rate-Hike Odds Are Whipsawing And Crypto Is Paying the Price
Expectations for a September Fed rate hike have been swinging wildly in response to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Governor Christopher Waller, and incoming economic data.
Warsh's hawkish comments initially pushed rate-hike odds sharply higher, while Waller later signaled that he could support keeping rates unchanged if inflation continues to cool. The result? Markets have been repricing the September decision almost by the hour.
The volatility has spilled directly into crypto.
More than $200 million in leveraged positions were reportedly liquidated within just 15 minutes, with roughly 90% of those positions being longs.
And the Fed isn't done receiving data before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
Two major inflation reports remain:
• 🇺🇸 August PPI — September 10, 19:30
• 🇺🇸 August CPI — September 11, 19:30
The PPI release is officially scheduled for September 10 at 8:30 AM ET.
These numbers could be decisive.
If inflation continues to cool, markets may further reduce the probability of a rate hike, potentially supporting Bitcoin and other risk assets.
But if inflation comes in hotter than expected, the opposite could happen: rate-hike expectations rise, Treasury yields move higher, and BTC could come under renewed selling pressure.
The latest jobs report has already complicated the picture. August payrolls came in at +162K, far above expectations, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. Markets subsequently pushed September rate-hike odds back toward roughly 60%+.
👉 For Bitcoin, the next few days may be less about technical levels and more about one question: what will the next inflation numbers do to Fed expectations?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Expectations for a September Fed rate hike have been swinging wildly in response to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Governor Christopher Waller, and incoming economic data.
Warsh's hawkish comments initially pushed rate-hike odds sharply higher, while Waller later signaled that he could support keeping rates unchanged if inflation continues to cool. The result? Markets have been repricing the September decision almost by the hour.
The volatility has spilled directly into crypto.
More than $200 million in leveraged positions were reportedly liquidated within just 15 minutes, with roughly 90% of those positions being longs.
And the Fed isn't done receiving data before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
Two major inflation reports remain:
• 🇺🇸 August PPI — September 10, 19:30
• 🇺🇸 August CPI — September 11, 19:30
The PPI release is officially scheduled for September 10 at 8:30 AM ET.
These numbers could be decisive.
If inflation continues to cool, markets may further reduce the probability of a rate hike, potentially supporting Bitcoin and other risk assets.
But if inflation comes in hotter than expected, the opposite could happen: rate-hike expectations rise, Treasury yields move higher, and BTC could come under renewed selling pressure.
The latest jobs report has already complicated the picture. August payrolls came in at +162K, far above expectations, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. Markets subsequently pushed September rate-hike odds back toward roughly 60%+.
👉 For Bitcoin, the next few days may be less about technical levels and more about one question: what will the next inflation numbers do to Fed expectations?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
