Food and energy commodities are ripping—up nearly 20% and 30% respectively this quarter. That's not noise, that's a macro regime shift.
This matters for two reasons. First, it puts central banks in a bind. If inflation prints start running hot again, the Fed's dovish pivot gets tested. Second, it hits consumer spending power directly—higher gas and grocery bills mean less discretionary income flowing into equities and risk assets.
Watch how this flows through to CPI prints and whether the market starts pricing in a more hawkish Fed. If commodities hold these gains, it changes the playbook for rate-cut expectations and growth stocks that got priced for a soft landing.
This is the kind of move that doesn't reverse quietly.
This matters for two reasons. First, it puts central banks in a bind. If inflation prints start running hot again, the Fed's dovish pivot gets tested. Second, it hits consumer spending power directly—higher gas and grocery bills mean less discretionary income flowing into equities and risk assets.
Watch how this flows through to CPI prints and whether the market starts pricing in a more hawkish Fed. If commodities hold these gains, it changes the playbook for rate-cut expectations and growth stocks that got priced for a soft landing.
This is the kind of move that doesn't reverse quietly.
