Muneeb dropping first public $STX market intel with new analyst Sam. No more dodging market questions.
August rally breakdown:
$STX pumped 83% in 4 days vs $BTC's 19% move. 4x the leverage on the upside.
Key signals from 5 major exchanges:
Week 1: First net positive taker flow in all of 2024 (+$400K vs usual -$1.7M bleed). Retail led, then smart money followed day 4. Opposite of Jan/May where programs front-ran.
Korean market flipped: Upbit was the heaviest seller during Binance monitoring tag. This rally? First net buying from Korea all year (+$488K). Week 2 they sold again but bids absorbed it over 7 days. No panic cascade like July's -15% in 2 days.
Volume exploded: $157M traded last week. 7x normal. Mid-large orders hit record 2,879 trades, 10x the 2024 median. Market got real depth.
Beta reversed: $STX used to dump 2x when $BTC fell, pump 1x when $BTC rose. Now? 30-day up-beta at 2.4x, down-beta negative. Two outlier days: Aug 25 $BTC red, $STX +13%. Aug 28 $BTC -3%, $STX +1.4%.
11 days in, $STX still up 95% from bottom, holding 75% of peak gains. Way stronger than May (gave back most gains by day 13) or January (weak volume).
Muneeb's take: Bitcoin capital markets narrative finally catching. Making $BTC productive through Stacks is getting priced in.
Not financial advice. Just raw data from the trenches.
August rally breakdown:
$STX pumped 83% in 4 days vs $BTC's 19% move. 4x the leverage on the upside.
Key signals from 5 major exchanges:
Week 1: First net positive taker flow in all of 2024 (+$400K vs usual -$1.7M bleed). Retail led, then smart money followed day 4. Opposite of Jan/May where programs front-ran.
Korean market flipped: Upbit was the heaviest seller during Binance monitoring tag. This rally? First net buying from Korea all year (+$488K). Week 2 they sold again but bids absorbed it over 7 days. No panic cascade like July's -15% in 2 days.
Volume exploded: $157M traded last week. 7x normal. Mid-large orders hit record 2,879 trades, 10x the 2024 median. Market got real depth.
Beta reversed: $STX used to dump 2x when $BTC fell, pump 1x when $BTC rose. Now? 30-day up-beta at 2.4x, down-beta negative. Two outlier days: Aug 25 $BTC red, $STX +13%. Aug 28 $BTC -3%, $STX +1.4%.
11 days in, $STX still up 95% from bottom, holding 75% of peak gains. Way stronger than May (gave back most gains by day 13) or January (weak volume).
Muneeb's take: Bitcoin capital markets narrative finally catching. Making $BTC productive through Stacks is getting priced in.
Not financial advice. Just raw data from the trenches.