Japan's 10-year bond pays 3% now. A few years ago it paid roughly zero
That is the macro story of the week. nothing to do with crypto
why it reaches us anyway:
➡ cheap yen was the funding for everything. borrow at nothing, buy stocks, buy risk, buy coins
➡ 3% is not nothing. Reuters calls it the first 3% print in 30 years — three decades of free money, repriced
➡ if the yen rips higher, those books close. selling risk assets to repay JPY loans. plumbing, not news
➡ japanese money comes home too, out of US treasuries, which pushes US yields up, which tightens everything else, and that is the part nobody here is pricing
$BTC is sitting at 77,447, down 1.8% on the day. like none of this is addressed to it.
the market is pricing MORE tightening from the Bank of Japan, not less. inflation is high. the debt pile keeps growing.
playbook:
- no new leverage while this is live
- spot stays, size does not grow
- watch the yen, not the funding rate
if you're actually watching JPY, say so in the comments. i'll put what people are seeing in one list.
anyway. i've been wrong about macro before and i'll be wrong about it again😄
#Japan10YYieldHits3%FirstSince1996
That is the macro story of the week. nothing to do with crypto
why it reaches us anyway:
➡ cheap yen was the funding for everything. borrow at nothing, buy stocks, buy risk, buy coins
➡ 3% is not nothing. Reuters calls it the first 3% print in 30 years — three decades of free money, repriced
➡ if the yen rips higher, those books close. selling risk assets to repay JPY loans. plumbing, not news
➡ japanese money comes home too, out of US treasuries, which pushes US yields up, which tightens everything else, and that is the part nobody here is pricing
$BTC is sitting at 77,447, down 1.8% on the day. like none of this is addressed to it.
the market is pricing MORE tightening from the Bank of Japan, not less. inflation is high. the debt pile keeps growing.
playbook:
- no new leverage while this is live
- spot stays, size does not grow
- watch the yen, not the funding rate
if you're actually watching JPY, say so in the comments. i'll put what people are seeing in one list.
anyway. i've been wrong about macro before and i'll be wrong about it again😄
#Japan10YYieldHits3%FirstSince1996
