Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole today — typically the Fed's platform for laying out monetary policy direction. Expect volatility through end of week.
Next FOMC is September 16th. Current odds of a hike sit around 1/3, down from a few weeks ago. Market pricing in less tightening risk, but Jackson Hole commentary could shift that. Watch for any hawkish surprises that might reprice rate expectations and pressure risk assets.
Cycle read: If Fed signals pause or pivot, that's fuel for risk-on rotation. If they stay hawkish, we could see another leg down before any sustained move higher. Position accordingly — don't get caught leaning too bullish if the tone stays restrictive.
Next FOMC is September 16th. Current odds of a hike sit around 1/3, down from a few weeks ago. Market pricing in less tightening risk, but Jackson Hole commentary could shift that. Watch for any hawkish surprises that might reprice rate expectations and pressure risk assets.
Cycle read: If Fed signals pause or pivot, that's fuel for risk-on rotation. If they stay hawkish, we could see another leg down before any sustained move higher. Position accordingly — don't get caught leaning too bullish if the tone stays restrictive.
