Bernstein just updated their $BTC price targets:
Base case:
• $125K by end of 2026
• $300K cycle peak in 2029
• $1M by 2033
Bull case: $500K in 2029
Their reasoning? Institutions limited this drawdown to ~50% instead of the historic 75-90% crashes we used to see.
Look, I've been around long enough to know price predictions are mostly vibes dressed up as research. But the institutional bid thesis isn't wrong — the structure of this cycle is different. Deeper liquidity, more sophisticated players, less retail panic.
That said, $1M by 2033 is a nice headline. Whether it happens depends on things no model can predict. Macro environment, regulatory shifts, how much real adoption actually materializes.
I'm not betting against $BTC long-term. But I'm also not planning my life around someone's spreadsheet.
Base case:
• $125K by end of 2026
• $300K cycle peak in 2029
• $1M by 2033
Bull case: $500K in 2029
Their reasoning? Institutions limited this drawdown to ~50% instead of the historic 75-90% crashes we used to see.
Look, I've been around long enough to know price predictions are mostly vibes dressed up as research. But the institutional bid thesis isn't wrong — the structure of this cycle is different. Deeper liquidity, more sophisticated players, less retail panic.
That said, $1M by 2033 is a nice headline. Whether it happens depends on things no model can predict. Macro environment, regulatory shifts, how much real adoption actually materializes.
I'm not betting against $BTC long-term. But I'm also not planning my life around someone's spreadsheet.
