#SP500FuturesFall
I was watching the S&P 500 early this morning and honestly stopped scrolling for a moment. Something about the chart felt different today.
The Vantage SP500 CFD is hovering around 7,680, barely moving. But what caught my eye was the 50-period and 200-period moving averages sitting almost on top of each other, compressed within roughly five points. When I have seen this kind of squeeze before, the market is usually loading up for a bigger move in either direction. Right now it is doing neither. Just waiting.
Midweek was rough. Treasury yield pressure built up, Walmart's numbers disappointed, and the index slid all the way down to 7,648 during Thursday's session. Then Friday flipped everything. Stronger than expected US business activity data pushed the index back above 7,700, the Dow added over 500 points. But zoom out to the weekly picture and it still finished down roughly 1.4%, with tech and chip names dragging the hardest.
When I ran through the RSI, it was sitting around 45, cooling off sharply after briefly touching overbought territory during Friday's rally. That is not a reversal signal on its own. Momentum just stalled.
When I ran through the RSI, it was sitting around 45, cooling off sharply after briefly touching overbought territory during Friday's rally. That is not a reversal signal on its own. Momentum just stalled.
The real test comes August 28. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote, and with long-dated yields already near multi-decade highs, even a slightly hawkish tone could shake things up considerably before the September FOMC meeting.
What is your read on Warsh, does he signal patience or does he give yields another reason to climb?
I was watching the S&P 500 early this morning and honestly stopped scrolling for a moment. Something about the chart felt different today.
The Vantage SP500 CFD is hovering around 7,680, barely moving. But what caught my eye was the 50-period and 200-period moving averages sitting almost on top of each other, compressed within roughly five points. When I have seen this kind of squeeze before, the market is usually loading up for a bigger move in either direction. Right now it is doing neither. Just waiting.
Midweek was rough. Treasury yield pressure built up, Walmart's numbers disappointed, and the index slid all the way down to 7,648 during Thursday's session. Then Friday flipped everything. Stronger than expected US business activity data pushed the index back above 7,700, the Dow added over 500 points. But zoom out to the weekly picture and it still finished down roughly 1.4%, with tech and chip names dragging the hardest.
When I ran through the RSI, it was sitting around 45, cooling off sharply after briefly touching overbought territory during Friday's rally. That is not a reversal signal on its own. Momentum just stalled.
When I ran through the RSI, it was sitting around 45, cooling off sharply after briefly touching overbought territory during Friday's rally. That is not a reversal signal on its own. Momentum just stalled.
The real test comes August 28. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote, and with long-dated yields already near multi-decade highs, even a slightly hawkish tone could shake things up considerably before the September FOMC meeting.
What is your read on Warsh, does he signal patience or does he give yields another reason to climb?
