Crypto is now game of big players they can liquidate retail users at anytime
Посты
Crypto PM
·
--
WHY IS MARKET DUMPING EVER AFTER THE BULLISH FED FOMC ?
#bitcoin has now erased the full pre #fomc pump within last 12 hours.
Here's why it happened:
1. Front running pump
The first thing to understand is that the rate cut was not a surprise as rate cut odds were at 95%.
Last week, many large traders started positioning early because they expected the Fed to add some form of liquidity support, which resulted in a rally.
So when the Fed actually announced the cut and the $40 billion month in T-bill purchases, the whales started taking profits.
This created the first leg of the sell-off.
2. Future rate cuts uncertainty
Powell’s press conference added a layer of uncertainty.
He said the labor market is weak and inflation is still too high
Also, Fed dot plot showed chances of only 1 cut in 2026 which the market saw as a bearish signal.
After that the US market closed and the real dump started.
3. Oracle earnings
Oracle reported its Q2 earnings after the market close and the numbers weren't good.
They missed the adjusted revenue, and also their CAPEX spending estimates went up.
The stock dropped more than 11%-12% in after market and also took down US stock futures.
The reason everything dump after Oracle's earning is the market thinks AI bubble is reaching its peak.
This fear spread fast across equities and then into crypto as well.
Now all three factors hit the market at the same time:
• The rate cut was fully priced in
• Liquidity trades were already front-run
• Powell did not give a strong easing signal
• Oracle earnings triggered fear about AI and tech demand
• Profit-taking started as soon as uncertainty increased
This combination created a clean dump, not because the Fed was bearish, but because expectations were too high going into the meeting.
But underneath the volatility, the bigger picture did not change.
- The Fed has now cut rates three times in three meetings.
- They will buy $40B in T-bills over the next 30 days.
- T-bill purchases may remain elevated for months.
- Powell said a rate hike is not anyone’s base case.
- The Fed expects solid economic growth next year.
- Job gains were overstated, meaning the labor market is softer than assumed.
- A softer labor market gives the Fed more flexibility to ease again if needed.
Markets dumped today because expectations were ahead of reality, not because the fundamentals turned bearish.
The next year is still going to be much more liquidity friendly than 2025, and the market still hasn't priced in that yet.
$BTC
#BTC
Here's why it happened:
1. Front running pump
The first thing to understand is that the rate cut was not a surprise as rate cut odds were at 95%.
Last week, many large traders started positioning early because they expected the Fed to add some form of liquidity support, which resulted in a rally.
So when the Fed actually announced the cut and the $40 billion month in T-bill purchases, the whales started taking profits.
This created the first leg of the sell-off.
2. Future rate cuts uncertainty
Powell’s press conference added a layer of uncertainty.
He said the labor market is weak and inflation is still too high
Also, Fed dot plot showed chances of only 1 cut in 2026 which the market saw as a bearish signal.
After that the US market closed and the real dump started.
3. Oracle earnings
Oracle reported its Q2 earnings after the market close and the numbers weren't good.
They missed the adjusted revenue, and also their CAPEX spending estimates went up.
The stock dropped more than 11%-12% in after market and also took down US stock futures.
The reason everything dump after Oracle's earning is the market thinks AI bubble is reaching its peak.
This fear spread fast across equities and then into crypto as well.
Now all three factors hit the market at the same time:
• The rate cut was fully priced in
• Liquidity trades were already front-run
• Powell did not give a strong easing signal
• Oracle earnings triggered fear about AI and tech demand
• Profit-taking started as soon as uncertainty increased
This combination created a clean dump, not because the Fed was bearish, but because expectations were too high going into the meeting.
But underneath the volatility, the bigger picture did not change.
- The Fed has now cut rates three times in three meetings.
- They will buy $40B in T-bills over the next 30 days.
- T-bill purchases may remain elevated for months.
- Powell said a rate hike is not anyone’s base case.
- The Fed expects solid economic growth next year.
- Job gains were overstated, meaning the labor market is softer than assumed.
- A softer labor market gives the Fed more flexibility to ease again if needed.
Markets dumped today because expectations were ahead of reality, not because the fundamentals turned bearish.
The next year is still going to be much more liquidity friendly than 2025, and the market still hasn't priced in that yet.
$BTC
#BTC
Отказ от ответственности. Содержит мнения третьих сторон. Не является рекомендацией. Binance AI не предоставляет гарантий. См. Правила и условия.