Perfectly laid out, I’ve been trying to figure out how to explain this.
Посты
--Рост
Bluechip
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DEFAULT 4-YEAR-CYCLE BECAME A 5-YEAR ONE!
Many still think that BTC will peak in Nov-Dec 2025
But all the data now shows BTC peak at Q2 of 2026
I researched all info: Here is what’s happening with crypto market
1/ For years we believed in the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle:
Halving → hype → blow-off top → brutal bear
But 2025 is breaking the script
Data shows the market is aligning with a new 5-year rhythm, pushing the likely $BTC peak into Q2 2026
Here’s the case
2/ In 2013, 2017, and 2021, BTC peaked roughly 12–18 months post-halving
Traders treated halving as the ultimate clock
But now the playbook is shifting
The halving still matters, but the stronger forces are Fed policy, debt markets, and liquidity cycles that run 5 years
3/ ETFs
In past runs, retail FOMO created sharp blow-offs
Now, institutions buy through ETFs and funds
They allocate slowly, steadily, and on longer horizons
This extended demand stretches the cycle beyond the usual 4-year window
4/ Liquidity
M2 money supply is recovering, global central banks are preparing for easing, and DXY is near multi-year lows
Bitcoin always reacts first to liquidity injections
But the pace now tracks the broader macro credit cycle – closer to 5 years
5/ The U.S. Treasury itself has shifted debt issuance to an average 5-year maturity
That small detail reshapes how capital flows through the system
Investors measure risk further out, and liquidity lingers longer
$BTC’s rhythm is syncing with that horizon
6/ ISM Manufacturing Index is now a surprisingly accurate compass
When ISM climbs above 50, Bitcoin tends to enter its growth phase
Current projections point to a peak in spring 2026, which lines up with the expected liquidity surge
7/ So why not 2025?
Because this year is set to deliver volatility, not the final peak
History shows mid-cycle shakeouts:
Alts dump 40–60%, leverage gets wiped, sentiment collapses
But these “bear traps” don’t end the cycle – they fuel the last explosive phase
8/ To confirm the 5-year thesis, watch the signals:
- ISM pushing toward 60
- M2 money supply growing year-over-year
- Yield curve steepening
- Dollar weakness (falling DXY)
- Consistent ETF inflows
Together, these markers build the bull case into 2026
9/ Strategy shifts with the cycle:
Hold a core BTC position – cycles are built on conviction
Buy dips during volatility, not tops during euphoria
Time alt rotations when ISM accelerates
Hedge, but don’t mistake noise for a broken trend
10/ Bitcoin no longer runs on a 4-year halving clock
Macro liquidity, institutional flows, and debt cycles stretched it into 5 years
Unless ISM breaks down early or liquidity dries up, the main scenario is clear – $BTC peak in Q2 2026
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
#MarketUptober
But all the data now shows BTC peak at Q2 of 2026
I researched all info: Here is what’s happening with crypto market
1/ For years we believed in the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle:
Halving → hype → blow-off top → brutal bear
But 2025 is breaking the script
Data shows the market is aligning with a new 5-year rhythm, pushing the likely $BTC peak into Q2 2026
Here’s the case
2/ In 2013, 2017, and 2021, BTC peaked roughly 12–18 months post-halving
Traders treated halving as the ultimate clock
But now the playbook is shifting
The halving still matters, but the stronger forces are Fed policy, debt markets, and liquidity cycles that run 5 years
3/ ETFs
In past runs, retail FOMO created sharp blow-offs
Now, institutions buy through ETFs and funds
They allocate slowly, steadily, and on longer horizons
This extended demand stretches the cycle beyond the usual 4-year window
4/ Liquidity
M2 money supply is recovering, global central banks are preparing for easing, and DXY is near multi-year lows
Bitcoin always reacts first to liquidity injections
But the pace now tracks the broader macro credit cycle – closer to 5 years
5/ The U.S. Treasury itself has shifted debt issuance to an average 5-year maturity
That small detail reshapes how capital flows through the system
Investors measure risk further out, and liquidity lingers longer
$BTC’s rhythm is syncing with that horizon
6/ ISM Manufacturing Index is now a surprisingly accurate compass
When ISM climbs above 50, Bitcoin tends to enter its growth phase
Current projections point to a peak in spring 2026, which lines up with the expected liquidity surge
7/ So why not 2025?
Because this year is set to deliver volatility, not the final peak
History shows mid-cycle shakeouts:
Alts dump 40–60%, leverage gets wiped, sentiment collapses
But these “bear traps” don’t end the cycle – they fuel the last explosive phase
8/ To confirm the 5-year thesis, watch the signals:
- ISM pushing toward 60
- M2 money supply growing year-over-year
- Yield curve steepening
- Dollar weakness (falling DXY)
- Consistent ETF inflows
Together, these markers build the bull case into 2026
9/ Strategy shifts with the cycle:
Hold a core BTC position – cycles are built on conviction
Buy dips during volatility, not tops during euphoria
Time alt rotations when ISM accelerates
Hedge, but don’t mistake noise for a broken trend
10/ Bitcoin no longer runs on a 4-year halving clock
Macro liquidity, institutional flows, and debt cycles stretched it into 5 years
Unless ISM breaks down early or liquidity dries up, the main scenario is clear – $BTC peak in Q2 2026
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
#MarketUptober
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